Full Breakdown
Nithya Raman Leads Los Angeles Mayoral Race Amid Shifting Urban Coalition
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Raman Takes Lead in Polls Ahead of November 3 Runoff
A University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times shows Councilmember Nithya Raman ahead of incumbent Mayor Karen Bass with 39 % support versus 28 % for Bass among 2,100 likely voters. One-third of respondents remain undecided. Prediction-market data from Kalshi and Polymarket price Raman’s chance of winning the runoff at roughly 57-58 % compared with 42-44 % for Bass.
Background & Context: An Emerging “Mamdani-style” Coalition in Expensive Cities
The race is being framed as a possible replication of the coalition that propelled Zohran Mamdani to New York City Hall. Political scientist John Mollenkopf (CUNY Graduate Center) notes that Los Angeles shares key affordability pressures: nearly two-thirds of residents rent, the home-ownership rate is 36 %, and median gross rent is $1,933. Racial composition is fragmented—47 % Hispanic/Latino, 28 % non-Hispanic white, 12 % Asian, 8 % Black—creating a “no-majority” electorate that rewards cross-group coalitions.
Data & Statistics
- Poll (Sept. 15-20): Raman 39 %, Bass 28 %, undecided 33 % (margin of error 3 pts).
- Favorability: Bass 63 % unfavorable, 28 % favorable; Raman 40 % favorable, 39 % unfavorable.
- Housing market: 66 % of Angelenos rent; median rent $1,933.
- Demographic voting trends: Ages 18-29 favor Raman 66 % to 4 %; ages 30-39 favor Raman 64 % to 12 %; ages 65+ favor Bass 41 % to 21 %.
Official Statements & Responses
Raman’s campaign emphasizes “affordability at the center,” promising more housing, stronger renter protections and a city government that “works better on basic services.” She said, “I’ve made sure that the decisions I’m making… are based on an understanding of how these policies will improve the lives of Angelenos.” The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA-LA) endorsed Raman after a member vote gave her over 60 % support. Labor groups—including Unite Here Local 11, the Writers Guild of America West, and IATSE—also endorsed her.
Mayor Bass counters that her administration has completed more than 10,000 affordable-housing units and reduced homelessness. She noted that 56 % of voters judged her handling of the 2025 Palisades fire “poorly or very poorly.” Bass warned that the high share of undecided voters makes the race “extraordinarily unusual.”
Criticism & Opposition
Spencer Pratt criticized Raman, saying, “I have zero political power, and I got more done in 3 weeks than she has in 3 years.” Political communications scholar Dan Schnur (UC Berkeley/USC) warned that the poll surge could make donors nervous and that Raman’s outsider positioning may be seen as a broader referendum on Bass rather than a policy contest.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Poll interpretation: While the Berkeley poll shows a double-digit lead for Raman, Bass’s campaign calls the data an “outlier” and points to the large undecided bloc as a source of uncertainty.
- Impact of coalition: Mollenkopf argues that Los Angeles’ institutional structure (county-run social services, separate school district) differs markedly from New York’s, casting doubt on whether a “Mamdani-style” coalition can translate into comparable policy outcomes.
What’s Next
Mail-in ballots begin in early October, and the runoff is set for November 3. Both candidates will appear at the 2026 Jewish Los Angeles Mayoral Forum hosted by the Jewish Federation of Los Angeles and the Skirball Cultural Center. The outcome will determine whether the emerging affordability-focused coalition can reshape Los Angeles governance.