Full Breakdown
2026 Maine Senate Race: Collins vs. Jackson
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Core Event
The 2026 U.S. Senate contest in Maine pits incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins, a 30-year incumbent, against Democratic former state senator Troy Jackson. The race centers on voters’ views of the 2022 Supreme Court decision that overturned *Roe v. Wade*, because Collins’ 2018 vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh is seen as a key factor.
Background: Collins’ Kavanaugh Vote and Abortion Stance
Collins, who describes herself as a “pro-choice” Republican, voted for Kavanaugh in a 50-48 roll-call. Kavanaugh later joined the 6-3 majority that eliminated the constitutional right to abortion. Collins has said she does not regret that vote. She also voted to confirm Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, both dissenters in the 2022 ruling. In 2022, Collins co-sponsored legislation to codify federal abortion protections, aligning with Maine’s electorate, where a 2020 AP VoteCast survey found 76 % opposed overturning *Roe*.
Campaign Finance and Advertising
Abortion-related advertising dominates the race. The Democratic-aligned group Affordable Maine has spent nearly $10 million on ads highlighting Collins’ support for Trump-appointed judges who oppose abortion. The pro-Collins super-PAC Win Senate has poured $32 million into its effort. Planned Parenthood Votes contributed at least $500,000 for ads featuring voters who regret backing Collins because of the Kavanaugh vote. Jackson’s campaign has organized a “Women for Troy” coalition covering all 16 Maine counties and touts a 100 % rating from Maine’s Planned Parenthood.
Voter Sentiment and Polls
A New York Times/Siena poll in September reported that “almost no likely Maine voters” listed abortion as the most important issue for November. Conversely, a CNN/SSRS survey of likely voters in late August and early September found most voters remain unhappy about the *Roe* overturn, though economic concerns may dominate the ballot. In 2020, 35 % of voters who supported Collins said they wanted *Roe* overturned, underscoring a split within her base.
Official Statements & Responses
Collins’ spokesperson Blake Kernen describes her as the only “reliably pro-choice” candidate in the race. Jackson’s spokesperson Maggie Amjad notes his current 100 % rating from Planned Parenthood. Governor Janet Mills (D) and the Democratic-controlled Legislature enacted a 2023 law permitting abortions when medically necessary and protecting providers of abortion and gender-affirming care from out-of-state lawsuits.
Criticism & Opposition
Bente Lundh, a 67-year-old voter from Falmouth, says, “She’s positioned herself as this moderate voter, but she’s really chopped that down with her vote for Kavanaugh.” Mary Ann Lynch, a Democrat who supports Collins, adds, “I think I’ve tried to not have my allegiance to party make me blind to what may be a better path from time to time.”
On-the-Ground Perspective
Portland resident Erin Evans, 56, recounts voting for Collins for years based on Planned Parenthood’s endorsement, only to feel “just furious with myself” after learning about the Kavanaugh vote.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls diverge on abortion’s salience: the New York Times/Siena poll suggests it is not a top issue, while the CNN/SSRS survey indicates lingering voter dissatisfaction with the *Roe* reversal. No source quantifies how these attitudes translate into vote shares, leaving uncertainty about the election’s decisive factors.
What’s Next
The contest will be decided in the November election, with both campaigns intensifying outreach to women voters and emphasizing their records on abortion access. Voter turnout and the interplay between abortion concerns and broader economic issues are expected to shape the final outcome.