Full Breakdown
Tightening Texas Midterm Races Center on Data-Center Controversy
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The Competitive Landscape of the 2026 Texas Senate and Gubernatorial Races
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa have moved into the lead in recent polls against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Governor Greg Abbott. The Marist University poll (Sept. 17-20) gave Talarico 50 % to Paxton’s 44 %; the TPOR poll (Sept. 19-22) showed 49 % to 44 %. The Real Clear Politics average (Sept. 27) placed Abbott ahead of Hinojosa by 1.8 points (47.8 % to 46 %). Both races have shifted from traditional Republican dominance toward “toss-up” (Senate) and “likely Republican” (governor) designations by the Cook Political Report.
Data-Center Issue Emerges as a Voter Concern
Data-center development tied to AI expansion has become a flashpoint. Paxton announced an investigation into water use at hundreds of data centers, demanding compliance with the Texas Water Development Board survey. Hinojosa has questioned the durability of Abbott’s pause, noting the possibility of reversal on Nov. 4.
Poll Numbers and Funding
- Senate polls: Marist (50 % vs 44 %); TPOR (49 % vs 44 %); NBC 5 Dallas/Telemundo (46 % vs 43 %).
- Gubernatorial polls: Real Clear Politics average (Abbott 47.8 % vs Hinojosa 46 %).
- Undecided voters: declined from 7 % in August to 3 % in September (TPOR); 4 % in the Marist poll.
- Fundraising: FEC data through June 30 shows Talarico’s campaign raised $31.85 M, compared with Paxton’s $9.15 M. About 45 % of Talarico’s donations came from out-of-state donors, chiefly California; Paxton received 17.1 % from out-of-state sources.
Official Statements & Responses
Abbott emphasized confidence in his campaign and the data-center pause, asserting that “the pause … has worked” and that all existing centers are now complying with new requirements. He pledged to empower local governments on future projects. Paxton framed the investigation as a protection of Texas water resources and warned that developers “blatantly disregard their legal obligations.” Talarico’s campaign accused Paxton of granting tax handouts to data-center companies and receiving personal benefits. Hinojosa highlighted the governor’s ability to change the pause before the election.
Criticism & Opposition
Madison Cercy, a Paxton spokeswoman, called Talarico a “hypocrite and a liar,” citing $12 M in donations from donors with data-center ties. Political-science professor Brandon Rottinghaus noted that data centers connect voter anxieties—electricity costs, water scarcity, property-rights concerns—and that Democrats can leverage the issue to appeal to independents and some traditionally Republican voters.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on Talarico’s lead: Marist reports a six-point margin, TPOR a five-point margin, and an Emerson College poll a one-point margin. Undecided voter percentages range from 3 % to 7 %. No poll isolates the data-center issue’s direct impact on voter preference.
Why It Matters
The data-center controversy cuts across partisan lines, linking environmental, economic, and rural concerns. Its prominence has forced both incumbents to adjust policy positions, potentially reshaping voter alignments in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. The races could affect Senate control nationally and determine whether Texas continues its three-decade Republican gubernatorial streak.
What’s Next
The registration deadline is early October, followed by early voting in mid-October. Election day is slated for early November. Both parties are expected to intensify outreach on data-center regulation and cost-of-living issues as the campaigns enter the final weeks.