Full Breakdown
Change-Bloc Parties Reach Non-Aggression Pact Ahead of Israeli Election
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Core Agreement and Remaining Divides
Leaders of the four “change bloc” parties met at Yair Lapid’s home on Saturday night and signed a non-aggression pact, agreeing to direct their campaign against Benjamin Netanyahu rather than attack one another. The pact does not resolve how the bloc will form a government or which candidate it will recommend to the president as prime minister. Gadi Eisenkot, chairman of the Yashar party, has said the party that wins the most votes should supply the bloc’s prime-ministerial candidate, a position that would favor his party, which currently leads the bloc in the polls. Yair Golan, however, maintains that the Arab party Ra’am remains a viable coalition partner, a view that clashes with Eisenkot’s refusal to work with either haredi or Arab parties unless they accept his principles.
Strategic Landscape and Voter Demographics
The bloc faces a fragmented electorate. An estimated 550,000-600,000 first-time voters aged 18-22 will be eligible, while 55,000-60,000 Russian-speaking adult immigrants have arrived since the 2022 election. Eisenkot’s Yashar party, with nine religious-Zionist candidates among its top 22 slots, is targeting “soft-right” religious-Zionist voters dissatisfied with Netanyahu’s reliance on haredi parties. Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu aims to attract disaffected Likud supporters angry over draft policies, exemplified by Dan Illouz, No. 10 on its list. B’Yachad seeks to hold the centre against the Reservists-New Economic Party ticket, while The Democrats focus on consolidating the left-wing vote.
Coalition Scenarios and Challenges
Analysts outline three plausible paths for the bloc to reach the required 61 Knesset seats:
1. Winning an outright majority – current polls suggest this is unlikely.
2. Incorporating Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and the Hendel-Zelekha ticket, together polling for roughly eight to nine seats, which could lift Eisenkot over the threshold but would create a wide ideological gap between Winter’s right-leaning platform and Golan’s left-wing stance.
3. Inducing post-election defections from Likud, a possibility if Likud MKs conclude that Netanyahu cannot form a government, though Eisenkot cannot rely on this before vote counting.
Official Positions of Party Leaders
- Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar) argues that any coalition must adopt universal military or national service and recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization, and he rules out partnerships with haredi or Arab parties that reject these principles.
- Yair Golan (The Democrats) counters that the Arab party Ra’am remains a “viable coalition option,” emphasizing the need to include Arab voters to reach a governing majority.
- Avigdor Liberman (Yisrael Beytenu) stresses the bloc’s focus on preventing internal name-calling, which he says would depress voter enthusiasm and aid Netanyahu.
Outlook and Unresolved Issues
The non-aggression pact marks a tactical advance by reducing intra-bloc conflict, but the bloc still lacks a clear pathway to replace Netanyahu. Without agreement on a prime-ministerial candidate, coalition partners, or a unified policy platform, the bloc’s ability to secure the 61 seats needed remains uncertain, leaving Netanyahu’s long-standing tenure—cumulatively 19 years as of September 28—still firmly in place.