Full Breakdown
Becerra Extends Lead Over Hilton in California Governor Race
By Drooid · · How we work
Poll Results Show Growing Gap
A new survey by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies indicates that 58 % of likely California voters favor Democrat Xavier Becerra for governor, while 33 % support Republican challenger Steve Hilton. The 25-point advantage represents a seven-point increase from the August poll, which showed Becerra at 55 % and Hilton at 37 %. Favorability ratings also shifted, with 48 % of respondents viewing Becerra positively versus 40 % negatively, and Hilton receiving a 35 % positive versus 51 % negative balance.
Voter Demographics and Registration Landscape
The poll reveals a strong partisan split: most Democrats back Becerra and most Republicans back Hilton. Among non-partisan voters, Becerra leads by 26 points. Registration data from the California Secretary of State’s office shows Democrats outnumber Republicans roughly 45 % to 25 % of the electorate, underscoring the structural advantage for the Democratic candidate.
Campaign Issues and Voter Priorities
Cost of living emerged as the top concern for 44 % of likely voters, while 37 % prioritize opposition to policies of the Trump administration. Hilton’s campaign has emphasized lowering gas prices, taxes, and energy costs, but the poll suggests these messages have not narrowed the gap with Becerra.
Implications for the Upcoming Election
The widening margin signals a solidifying lead for Becerra as the state’s gubernatorial election approaches. Hilton’s inability to gain traction despite targeted economic messaging points to the difficulty of overcoming the Democratic registration advantage and the salience of cost-of-living concerns among voters. If the trends reflected in the September poll persist, Becerra is positioned as the clear front-runner heading into the November ballot.