Full Breakdown
Brazil’s Presidential Race Narrows as Polls Show Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Neck-and-Neck
By Drooid · · How we work
Tight Race Ahead of October’s Election
Recent opinion surveys indicate that incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are essentially tied in a simulated runoff. A Datafolha poll conducted between September 22 and 23 reports Lula at 47 percent and Bolsonaro at 45 percent, a two-point margin that falls within the poll’s 2-percentage-point margin of error. The same poll recorded a similar lead a week earlier (Lula 46 percent, Bolsonaro 44 percent). A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll of 2,000 respondents from September 25-27 shows Lula at 46 percent versus Bolsonaro 44 percent, also within the margin of error. By contrast, a Quaest poll released on September 28 places Bolsonaro ahead with 42 percent to Lula’s 41 percent.
Polling Landscape and Recent Surveys
All three surveys agree that neither candidate is approaching the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a second round. In first-round scenarios, the BTG Pactual/Nexus poll projects Lula at 42 percent, Bolsonaro 37 percent, with Augusto Cury (5 percent), Ronaldo Caiado (5 percent) and Renan Santos (4 percent) trailing. Earlier BTG data showed Lula at 40 percent and Bolsonaro at 37 percent. Datafolha’s first-round figures list Lula at 40 percent, Bolsonaro 36 percent, Cury 5 percent, Caiado 4 percent and Santos 3 percent.
Election Timeline and Stakes
If no candidate secures more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round scheduled for October 4, the top two finishers will contest a runoff on October 25. Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term, while Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 electoral defeat.
Implications of a Near Tie
The convergence of multiple polls within a narrow margin suggests a highly competitive election, with both campaigns likely to intensify outreach ahead of the October 4 vote. The technical tie also raises the probability of a runoff, which could extend campaign dynamics and voter mobilization efforts into late October.
