Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Rating Hits Record Lows Ahead of the 2026 Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Historic Declines in Presidential Approval
Multiple national polls released in the weeks before the upcoming midterm elections show President Donald Trump’s job approval hovering between the high-20s and low-40s percent, the lowest levels recorded for a sitting president in Wall Street Journal-tracked midterm cycles dating back to 1990. The trend reflects a sharp drop from the 52 % approval the president enjoyed a month into his second term.
Background & Context
The decline coincides with a seven-month-old war in Iran, rising gasoline prices, persistent inflation, and broader concerns about household affordability. Energy-price spikes have pushed regular-gas costs above $4 per gallon, while voters repeatedly cite the economy and the Iran conflict as top issues influencing their congressional choices.
Data & Statistics
- Wall Street Journal poll of 1,500 registered voters (mid-September) – 37 % approve, 61 % disapprove.
- Reuters/Ipsos poll (early September) – 32 % approve.
- American Research Group survey – 29 % approve.
- RealClearPolling average (late September) – 38.8 % approve, 59.9 % disapprove.
- NPR/PBS/Marist poll – 30 % say Trump is not a major factor in their congressional vote; 45 % say their vote is mainly a vote against him.
- Quinnipiac poll – Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 11 points.
Official Statements & Responses
White House spokesman Davis Ingle dismissed the polling as “the ultimate poll,” emphasizing that nearly 80 million Americans supported the administration’s agenda and claiming “historic progress” on jobs, inflation and housing affordability.
Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) warned that internal party disagreements should not be labeled disloyalty and urged lawmakers to move beyond a “loyalty test” when they genuinely differ with administration policies.
Criticism & Opposition
Political analyst Nathan Gonzales (Inside Elections) warned that “any midterm election with an unpopular president is potentially treacherous for his party.”
Verbatim Quotes
- “For really his entire political career, the president has enjoyed very strong support among the Republican Party and among his base, and that’s still true today, but it’s a bit less true,” — Alec Tyson, senior vice president and lead pollster at Ipsos Public Affairs
- “In general, the president’s party tends to lose more seats when the president’s approval rating is underwater, when the president is unpopular,” — Alan Abramowitz, political scientist at Emory University
- “It's very, very, very unlikely for Republicans to hold on to their majority,” — G. Elliott Morris
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Poll results vary widely: the Wall Street Journal poll reports 37 % approval, Reuters/Ipsos 32 %, and American Research Group 29 %. RealClearPolling’s composite average sits at 38.8 %. The range reflects methodological differences and timing of data collection.
What’s Next
The midterm elections are approaching. Analysts continue to track weekly polling averages, with particular attention to swing-state Senate races in Michigan and Texas, where the president’s approval appears to be a decisive factor for many voters.
