Full Breakdown
Australian Market Opens Flat Ahead of RBA Rate Decision as US Bond Yields Surge and Iran-Related Oil Spike
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Core Event
On September 29, 2026, Australian equities were set to begin the trading day with little change. Futures for the S&P/ASX 200 were near 8,722 points, indicating a flat opening, while investors awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash-rate announcement. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields jumped to their highest levels in roughly two decades, and oil prices rose on heightened uncertainty over the war between the United States and Iran.
Background & Context
The RBA’s nine-member policy board is expected to raise the cash rate by a quarter-percentage point to 4.6 %, the highest level since November 2011. The decision follows a series of hikes that lifted the rate from 4.35 % in May. In the United States, President Donald Trump told reporters the war with Iran would be won “very soon,” while also rejecting an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without concessions. The conflict has pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation concerns that could force the Federal Reserve to tighten policy later in the year.
Data & Statistics
- ASX futures: up 2 points to 8,722 (6:39 a.m. AEST).
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: rose to 5.23 %, matching 2007 levels.
- S&P 500: down 0.8 % at the close of the previous session.
- Oil: West Texas Intermediate futures settled just under US$93 per barrel, up 0.5 %; Brent crude at US$105.71 per barrel, up 1.3 %.
- Sector moves: Australian banks rose, miners fell; U.S. airlines such as American Airlines and United Airlines dropped 2.5 % and 2.2 % respectively.
- Gold: price fell 3.9 %, pressured by higher yields.
- Nvidia: stock rose 1.7 % after announcing a US$150 billion shareholder-return program, expanding its total buyback to US$235 billion.
Official Statements & Responses
Belinda Allen, head of Australia Economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noted that “the risk sits with the need to tighten monetary policy further beyond September given the inflation backdrop.” The comment underscores market concerns that the RBA may need additional hikes after the September decision.
midterm elections.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The risk sits with the need to tighten monetary policy further beyond September given the inflation backdrop,” — Belinda Allen, head of Australia Economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia
- “I’d like to make a deal, too,” — Donald Trump, US president
- “Without a concrete deal or conclusion to the conflict, the market is quickly fading initial headline reactions and higher prices are becoming harder to shake,” — Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities
What’s Next
The RBA will announce its cash-rate decision at 2:30 p.m. in Sydney, followed by Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference an hour later. Market participants will look for clues on whether the central bank intends to deliver a second consecutive hike in November or adopt a more cautious stance for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, U.S. officials have indicated that President Trump remains willing to offer sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds if concrete progress on the nuclear issue is achieved, a development that could further influence global commodity markets.