Full Breakdown
Saudi Oil Revenue Surges Amid Iran-War Turbulence
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Export Volumes and Price Dynamics
Before the conflict began in February, Saudi Arabia exported roughly 7 million barrels of crude per day. Shipments fell to under 4 million barrels per day in March and April, then recovered to about 5.5 million barrels per day in September. At the same time, Brent crude futures have risen about 75 percent this year, trading near $107 per barrel. The higher price has more than compensated for the reduced flow, lifting the kingdom’s annualized export revenue to an estimated $210 billion, up from $150 billion pre-war. That windfall represents more than 6 percent of Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product.
Official Assessments
He also highlighted that the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu has resumed flows of about 3.5 million barrels per day, roughly half its 7 million-barrel capacity, allowing the kingdom to diversify shipments between its Persian Gulf ports and the Red Sea route.
Future Outlook
Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, warned that sustained higher exports from the east coast, combined with recovering Yanbu loadings, could push total Saudi exports beyond pre-pipeline-attack levels. Continued U.S. naval protection of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz remains a key factor in maintaining these flows, while the kingdom’s infrastructure stays vulnerable to further attacks by Iran-backed militias and Houthi forces controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Verbatim Quotes
- “If increased exports from the east coast are sustained as loadings from Yanbu recover, total Saudi exports could feasibly rise beyond levels seen before the pipeline attacks,” — Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics