Full Breakdown
Tightening Race in Vermont: Gov. Phil Scott vs. Amanda Janoo
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Contest Overview
Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott, a five-term officeholder, faces Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo, an economist, in the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. A recent statewide poll shows Scott maintaining a lead, while a poll released a week earlier indicated Janoo ahead. The contest pits Scott’s “affordability agenda” against Janoo’s proposals for higher taxes on second homes and expanded health-care coverage.
Background & Context
Scott has won each of his prior three reelection bids by margins of at least 40 points, including a 73 % victory in 2024. Political strategist Julia Barnes notes that his support has “cratered” since that landslide.
Data & Statistics
- Vermont Public poll (? 800 respondents, ± 3.4 pp): 42 % for Scott, 32 % for Janoo; among likely voters, 44 % for Scott, 34 % for Janoo, 16 % undecided.
- UNH poll (? 900 respondents): 49 % for Janoo, 43 % for Scott; the poll’s party-weighting was criticized for over-representing Democrats.
- Scott’s approval has fallen to roughly 45 % from 60 % in 2022.
- Demographic splits: Janoo leads among women (+4 pp), Chittenden County residents (+3 pp), and voters with a bachelor’s degree or higher (+6 pp). Scott holds a 26-point advantage among voters 65 and older.
Official Statements & Responses
Scott’s campaign spokesperson Emma Shouldice emphasized that the governor remains “confident” about preserving the historical streak of incumbent governors.
Verbatim Quotes
- “That, plus the very clear grassroots movement that Amanda Janoo is building, says to me that there is some momentum against what has been a seemingly insurmountable incumbency advantage,” — Julia Barnes
- “It’s not really a partisan thing,” — Amanda Janoo
- “The national mood is such that if you have an ‘R’ beside your name — even if you’re someone like Phil Scott — that ‘R’ is an anchor,” — Chris Graff
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Two recent polls present opposite leads. The Vermont Public poll, using random outreach via phone and text, shows a 10-point advantage for Scott. The UNH poll, employing an online panel with a Democratic skew, shows Janoo ahead by six points. Both surveys acknowledge sizable margins of error and differing sampling frames, leaving uncertainty about the true state of voter preference.
What’s Next
A gubernatorial debate is scheduled for late October, providing the first direct comparison of the candidates on stage. The general election will be held on the first Tuesday of November, when Vermonters will cast their ballots to determine whether Scott secures a sixth term or Janoo achieves a historic upset.