Full Breakdown
Monsoon Withdrawal Triggers Heavy Rain Alerts Across India in Late September 2026
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Weather Outlook (Sept 26 – Oct 3)
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued heavy-rain, thunderstorm and gusty-wind alerts as the southwest monsoon retreats. A depression that formed over the north Andaman Sea on September 27 is expected to intensify by the evening of September 28 and move north-northeastward along the Myanmar coast, later entering the northeast Bay of Bengal. It will bring isolated to scattered heavy rain in Uttarakhand, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and large parts of the northeast from September 28 onward.
From September 29 to October 3 the IMD forecasts a “fairly widespread” rain phase for Kerala, Mahe, coastal Karnataka, interior Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and the northeastern states, with gusts of 30-40 kmph (up to 65 kmph along the Myanmar and Bangladesh coasts). Yellow alerts for heavy rain were issued for Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir on September 28.
Background & Context
The southwest monsoon is in its final withdrawal stage. The IMD’s withdrawal line on September 27 passed through Gurdaspur, Chandigarh, Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh, Dholpur, Udaipur, Deesa and Naliya, marking the retreat across Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat. The transition to the northeast monsoon should become evident over the Arabian Sea by October 7, with the Bay of Bengal following around October 12.
Official Statements & Responses
- The IMD’s all-India bulletin (Sept 27) warned of heavy rain in Uttarakhand, South Interior Karnataka and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and of thunderstorms and gusty winds in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and the northeast.
- Fishermen have been instructed to avoid the Bay of Bengal, the Myanmar coast and the Bangladesh coast until September 30.
- Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath directed district magistrates in Uttar Pradesh to maintain vigilance, keep schools closed in red-alert districts and provide assistance to affected families within 24 hours.
On-the-Ground Reports
Residents in Lucknow described continuous overnight rain that water-logged streets and hampered movement. In Ayodhya, devotees reported difficulty navigating around the Ram temple due to strong gusts and standing water. Farmers in rural Uttar Pradesh noted that wind was tearing standing crops from their stalks, raising concerns about agricultural loss.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
All sources convey a consistent picture of the IMD’s forecasts and alerts; no substantive discrepancies were identified.
What’s Next
The IMD expects the southwest monsoon to complete its withdrawal by early October, with wind-regime reversals over the Arabian Sea by October 7 and over the Bay of Bengal by October 12. These shifts will usher in the northeast monsoon, bringing renewed rainfall to the south peninsula while western and central regions move toward drier conditions. Continued monitoring of the depression’s track and evolving wind patterns will be essential for disaster-management authorities and agricultural planners.