Full Breakdown
Netanyahu’s Security-Focused Campaign Ahead of Israel’s October 27 Election
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – age 77 and leader of the Likud party – is campaigning for re-election by portraying himself as the sole guarantor of Israel’s security. At the same time, the Central Elections Committee (CEC) voted to bar the two main Arab-majority lists – the Joint List (Hadash, Balad, Ta’al) and Ra’am (United Arab List) – from the ballot, a decision that is being challenged before the Supreme Court.
Background & Context
- The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack shattered Netanyahu’s security credentials and triggered a multi-front war.
- Israel’s war in Gaza has caused tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths, diplomatic isolation and an ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu.
- Opposition parties are urging a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failure, while Netanyahu’s campaign stresses external threats and his experience.
Key Figures & Groups
- Benjamin Netanyahu – Prime Minister, Likud leader.
- Gadi Eisenkot – former IDF chief, Yashar party leader.
- Naftali Bennett – former prime minister, B’Yachad leader.
- Mansour Abbas – Ra’am leader.
- Itamar Ben-Gvir – National Security Minister, Otzma Yehudit leader.
- Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara – opposed the disqualification of the Arab lists.
- Adalah – Palestinian legal-rights group representing the barred parties.
Timeline
- September 29 2026 – Reuters reports Netanyahu’s reliance on a decades-old security-focused playbook.
- September 29 2026 – CEC votes 18-5 to bar Ra’am and the Joint List, 31-4 to bar Sami Abu Shehadeh.
- October 27 (scheduled) – Knesset election.
Data & Statistics
- Likud projected seats 18–32; Yashar projected 22–23.
- The Joint List and Ra’am together hold about 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.
- Arab citizens constitute roughly one-fifth of Israel’s population.
Why It Matters / Impact
- Framing the election around security seeks to shift attention from the October 7 failure to perceived imminent attacks.
- Barring the main Arab-majority lists could disenfranchise a sizable minority and alter coalition arithmetic; the pro-Netanyahu bloc needs at least 61 seats to form a government.
- The Supreme Court’s pending review will decide whether Arab representation remains on the ballot, directly affecting the Knesset balance of power.
Official Statements & Responses
- Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara opposed the disqualification of the Joint List and Ra’am, saying the evidence did not meet the legal threshold.
- Opposition leader Yair Lapid demanded an immediate security briefing, questioning whether the threat was genuine or political.
Criticism & Opposition
- Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar) called Netanyahu’s warning a “political stunt” and asked for verification.
- Yair Lapid remarked, “When there are elections, suddenly he takes warnings seriously.”
- Adalah argued the petitions relied on old material and amounted to “political persecution” of Arab representation.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Some outlets cite senior UAE and Egyptian officials warning Netanyahu before October 7; Netanyahu denies receiving such warnings, and it is unclear whether alerts reached Israeli security chiefs.
- The CEC’s decision to bar Arab parties is reported as final, yet the Supreme Court has not ruled, leaving ballot status uncertain.
- Polls differ sharply on the size of the pro-Netanyahu bloc, creating divergent forecasts for coalition formation.
What’s Next
- The Supreme Court is expected to review the CEC’s disqualification decisions in the coming days.
- The October 27 Knesset election will test whether Netanyahu’s security narrative secures a governing majority.
- Post-election coalition talks will need to address the 61-seat threshold and the potential inclusion or exclusion of Arab parties.