Full Breakdown
Israeli Election Looms, Lebanese Expect No Change in Southern Lebanon
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Core Situation: Ongoing Occupation and Conflict
Israel’s military presence continues to cover roughly six percent of Lebanon’s border territory, a holdover from the war that intensified after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched the 2023 conflict. Israeli forces say their operations target only Hezbollah, yet the campaign has struck civilian areas across southern Lebanon, resulting in thousands of deaths and injuries since October 2023. No diplomatic talks have taken place between Israeli and Lebanese officials since early August, and Israel has signaled it will not withdraw until Hezbollah is fully disarmed—a condition the group rejects.
Perspectives from Southern Residents
Residents of villages such as Nabatieh and the southern suburbs of Beirut describe daily life under occupation as unchanged by Israeli politics. Hadi Nasrallah, who sells orange juice from a pushcart in Khiam, argues that Israel’s territorial ambitions will persist regardless of which party wins the upcoming Israeli election. Ali Jarmak, also from Nabatieh, warns that the election’s outcome may even intensify the conflict as political leaders seek votes through military escalation.
Political Rivalry in Israel
Netanyahu’s main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, former army chief of staff and head of the Yashar party, projects a similarly hard-line security stance. He promotes the “Dahiyeh Doctrine,” a strategy of massive force that was employed during the 2006 war and is now cited in Israel’s recent aerial assaults on Beirut’s southern suburbs. Both leaders claim the goal is a demilitarised southern Lebanon, the disarmament of Hezbollah, and long-term security for northern Israeli communities.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Israel has territorial ambitions. It is about Greater Israel. That is why whoever wins in the election won’t stop the destructive military policies and leave southern Lebanon,” — Hadi Nasrallah
- “I think you should focus on what happens from now until the elections rather than who will lead Israel,” — Ali Jarmak, a resident of the southern city of Nabatieh
Outlook
With Israeli voters set to decide the next government in a few weeks, Lebanese observers stress that the election is unlikely to alter the military policies driving the occupation. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam of Lebanon has appealed to the United Nations for a clear timetable and verification mechanism to implement the framework agreement with Israel, but Israeli forces continue to discuss “a new phase in operations,” leaving the region’s future uncertain.
