Full Breakdown
Middle East Oil Exports Rebound and Qatar-Linked LNG Transits Resume Through Hormuz
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Background & Context
The conflict that began with joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February has kept the Strait of Hormuz largely shut to commercial traffic. Iranian attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure forced Saudi Arabia to reroute exports. Over the past month, crude shipments and liquefied natural gas (LNG) movements have begun to recover, signalling a partial easing of the maritime chokehold that once handled roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil and LNG supply.
Data & Statistics
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Regional crude exports (pre-war February) | 18.8 million bpd | Kpler |
| Regional crude exports in September (preliminary) | 16.3 million bpd | Kpler/euronews |
| Regional crude exports in September (alternative) | 12.8 million bpd | Kpler/internationalfinance |
| Saudi crude exports in September | ?5.4 million bpd (up from 2.45 million bpd in August) | euronews |
| Ras Tanura shipments in September | ?3.6 million bpd (up from 929 k bpd in August) | Kpler |
| Estimated flow through Hormuz (Sept.) | ?9.7 million bpd | euronews |
| Estimated flow through Hormuz (alternative) | ?7.4 million bpd | Kpler |
| Qatar LNG cargoes (first six months of war) | 18 cargoes vs 509 a year earlier | ICIS |
| Visible Qatar-linked LNG transits in late September | At least eight vessels (e.g., GasLog Skagen, Al Ghashamiya, Shandong Redwood, Al Daayen, Al Mafyar) | Kpler/LSEG |
| Large Saudi crude carriers exiting Hormuz (last week) | 19 vessels, ~2 million bbl each | Kpler |
Official Statements & Responses
- Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, Qatar Energy Minister, said building a pipeline around Hormuz “would make no economic sense” because a new plant would be required to re-gasify piped gas before liquefaction. He noted that two LNG units damaged at Ras Laffan cut capacity by about 17 %, with repairs expected to take roughly three years, while the remaining 12 units could resume output within weeks once safe passage is restored.
- Donald Trump, President of the United States, rejected an Iranian proposal—mediated by Qatar—to reopen Hormuz and end hostilities within seven days, stating that the offer did not meet U.S. conditions.
- Edison, the Italian utility, said QatarEnergy had extended force majeure on several contracts until early December, leaving six LNG cargoes for Italy’s Adriatic terminal undelivered and raising the total missed cargoes since April to 35. Edison has substituted 23 of those cargoes with U.S. gas supplies.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Export volume discrepancy: Preliminary Kpler data cited by euronews puts September regional crude exports at 16.3 million bpd, while internationalfinance and inspenet report 12.8 million bpd for the same month.
- Hormuz flow estimates: euronews projects total energy traffic at about 9.7 million bpd for September, whereas Kpler’s initial estimate cited by internationalfinance and inspenet is roughly 7.4 million bpd.
- LNG vessel visibility: Kpler reported no visible Qatar-linked LNG transits in August; analysts note some vessels may have crossed with transponders off, leaving the exact number unknown.