Full Breakdown
Susan Collins Gains Ground with Women Voters in Maine Senate Race Amid Abortion Debate
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Shifting Female Support in a Tight Senate Contest
The 2024 Maine Senate race pits five-term Republican incumbent Susan Collins against Democrat Troy Jackson. A University of New Hampshire survey conducted September 17–21 found women favor Jackson 51 % to 47 %. Earlier, a July 15–20 poll showed only 34 % of women viewed Collins favorably, compared with 52 % unfavorable. Internal polling released by Collins’ campaign indicates her overall favorability among women has risen to 40 % favorable, 50 % unfavorable and 10 % neutral, an improvement from a July poll that recorded 41 % of women intending to vote for her.
Background & Context: Abortion Vote, State Law and Party Dynamics
Collins’ 2018 vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh—who later joined the majority that struck down *Roe v. Wade*—has become a focal point for Jackson’s campaign. Collins describes herself as a “pro-choice” Republican, noting past endorsements from Planned Parenthood and co-sponsorship of federal abortion-protection legislation in 2022. Maine’s Democratic-controlled legislature passed a law in 2023 allowing abortions at any stage when medically necessary, and Governor Janet Mills has shielded providers from out-of-state lawsuits.
Data & Statistics: Polls and Campaign Spending
- Women’s support (Sept 17-21 survey): Jackson 51 % vs. Collins 47 % (University of New Hampshire).
- Women’s favorability (July 15-20 poll): Collins 34 % favorable, 52 % unfavorable.
- Overall voter support (NYT/Siena poll): Collins 49 % vs. Jackson 46 % (5 % undecided).
- Planned Parenthood Votes earmarked over $600,000 for ads highlighting Collins’ anti-abortion votes.
- Affordable Maine has spent nearly $10 million on ads stressing Collins’ support for Trump-appointed judges.
- Win Senate PAC has contributed $32 million to Collins-aligned advertising.
Official Statements & Responses
Collins told reporters in June that she stands by her past votes. Her chief of staff Katie Brown condemned recent vandalism of Collins’ Biddeford office, calling the act “unacceptable” and affirming that the office remains open. Planned Parenthood’s super PAC announced its ad spend, emphasizing voter disapproval of Collins’ anti-abortion record.
Criticism & Opposition
Planned Parenthood Votes and the advocacy group Reproductive Freedom for All have targeted Collins with coordinated advertising, arguing that her Kavanaugh vote contributed to the loss of abortion rights. Jackson’s campaign highlights his 100 % rating from the Planned Parenthood Maine Action Fund and his “Women for Troy” coalition spanning all 16 Maine counties. Critics note that Collins’ moderate reputation is undermined by the confirmation vote, a point echoed by voters interviewed by local media.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
A New York Times/Siena poll released last week gave Collins a three-point edge, while the University of New Hampshire survey shows Jackson leading among women. A September poll of likely Maine voters found that “almost no” respondents identified abortion as the most important issue, even as both campaigns treat it as a decisive factor. The extent to which abortion will sway the final outcome remains unclear.
What’s Next
Maine voters will cast ballots later this month. Both campaigns continue to deploy targeted advertising, with Collins’ allies emphasizing her bipartisan record and Jackson’s team focusing on his pro-choice stance. The result will influence the balance of power in the U.S. Senate as Democrats seek to flip enough Republican seats to gain control.
