Ohio Gubernatorial Race Heats Up: Ramaswamy vs. Acton

• Candidates: Vivek Ramaswamy – Republican biotech entrepreneur and former 2024 presidential candidate; Amy Acton – Democrat, former Ohio health director.

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• Election: Ohio governor, a post traditionally Republican but now seen as a potential Democratic pickup.

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• Timeline: Early voting begins October 6 ahead of the 2026 midterms.

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• Campaign focus: Both advocate data-center restrictions, property-tax relief, and a gas-tax break. Ramaswamy pushes a gradual phase-out of the state income tax; Acton emphasizes public-safety experience and grassroots outreach.

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Ohio voted for Democratic presidents in 2008 and 2012 but has leaned Republican since 2016, giving Donald Trump double-digit wins in 2020 and 2024. The last Democratic governor, Ted Strickland, left office in 2006; Republicans John Kasich and Mike DeWine have held the seat since, with DeWine term-limited in 2026. Ramaswamy won the Republican primary with over 80 % and was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Acton ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.

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• Suffolk poll (Sept 23-27, 500 likely voters, ±4.4 %): Acton 50 % vs. Ramaswamy 41 %.

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• Marist poll (Sept 24-27, 1,298 registered voters, ±3.8 %): Acton 50 % vs. Ramaswamy 44 %.

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• YouGov/Bowling Green poll (Sept 1-10, 1,000 likely voters, ±4 %): Acton 48 % vs. Ramaswamy 45 %.

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• Fox News poll (Aug 6-10, 1,008 registered voters, ±3 %): Ramaswamy 50 % vs. Acton 48 %.

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• Prediction markets: Kalshi gives Acton a 61 % chance; Polymarket 62 %.

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• Republicans revived a 2019 police report of a domestic disturbance at Acton’s home, framing it as evidence of substance abuse; Acton called it a “normal marital fight” and denounced the accusations as “lies, hate and vitriol.”

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• GOP-produced AI-generated images showed Acton’s car with a fabricated “drunk-mom” plate.

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• Democratic ads label Ramaswamy a “conman and swindler” over his Alzheimer’s-drug investments; his spokesperson dismissed poll-centric coverage as “gospel” and “inevitably wrong.”

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• Acton’s campaign manager accuses Ramaswamy of “trying to buy this election” by spending tens of millions on misleading AI ads.

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Polls diverge: Suffolk and Marist show double-digit leads for Acton, while the Fox News poll gives Ramaswamy a narrow edge. All are within their margins of error, leaving the race statistically ambiguous. Prediction-market odds favor Acton (61-62 %) but contrast with the Fox News poll’s slight Ramaswamy advantage, underscoring uncertainty as the election nears.

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Early voting starts October 6. Neither campaign has scheduled a debate. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball continue to list the contest as a toss-up, reflecting its volatility as Ohio heads to the polls.

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