Coalition’s Primary Vote Plummets Amid Rising Support for Tougher Immigration Controls

The Guardian Essential poll shows the Liberal-National Coalition’s primary vote sinking to a historic low of 22 %, down four points from the previous month. The same survey indicates that a majority of Australians back stricter immigration measures, including forced deportations of visa overstayers (70 % support) and tighter scrutiny of protection-seeker visas (68 %).

The Guardian

Immigration has become a flashpoint in Australian politics. Over the past year, the Labor government’s migration plan has faced criticism from both the right-leaning One Nation party and the Greens, while the Coalition has struggled to present a cohesive alternative. Former Greens leader Adam Bandt warned that the party’s new leadership will be pressured by grassroots members to block any new coal and gas projects “by whatever means,” reflecting broader voter frustration with perceived policy overreach.

The Guardian

• Coalition primary vote: 22 % (down from 26 % a month earlier).

The Guardian

• Labor primary vote: 29 % (up from 26 % in August).

The Guardian

• One Nation primary vote: 25 % (up from 23 % in August).

The Guardian

• Greens primary vote: 12 % (stable).

The Guardian

• Public opinion on immigration: 55 % want the annual migrant intake lowered; 46 % view immigration positively, 39 % view it negatively.

The Guardian

• Specific policy support: forced deportations (70 %), tighter protection-seeker scrutiny (68 %), limiting family reunification for international students (62 %).

The Guardian

All figures are from the Guardian Essential poll of 1,022 respondents conducted the week before the report.

The Guardian

Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke announced measures to align migration with budget forecasts, including tougher rules for working-holiday visas, partner and family applications, and increased monitoring of visa overstayers. The government framed these changes as necessary to balance population growth with housing and public-service capacity.

The Guardian

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson proposed cutting temporary migrant numbers by more than 750,000 over three years, coupled with hard-line compliance measures. Former deputy secretary of the immigration department Abul Rizvi warned that Hanson’s deportation model could cost “many, many billions of dollars” and jeopardise aged-care and construction sectors.

The Guardian

The poll does not break down the demographic composition of respondents or the projected fiscal impact of the proposed measures. No source offers a detailed cost analysis of the One Nation plan, leaving a gap in understanding the economic feasibility of the suggested cuts.

The Guardian

• “This week’s report shows that while there is support to cut the immigration numbers, there is actually growing numbers who see immigration as positive for the nation,” — Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media

The Guardian

The Greens are expected to elect a new leader within days, following Larissa Waters’ resignation for health reasons. Both the Coalition and Labor will refine their migration platforms ahead of the upcoming federal election, with immigration policy set to remain a decisive issue for voters.

The Guardian