Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Rating Hits Historic Lows Ahead of the 2026 Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Record-Low Net Approval in Late-September 2026 Polls
A Quinnipiac University poll released in late September 2026 shows President Donald Trump’s net approval rating at -27 points—34 % approving and 61 % disapproving—its lowest level in his second term. The poll records partisan splits: 81 % of Republicans approve, 13 % disapprove; 4 % of Democrats approve, 96 % disapprove; and among independents, 25 % approve while 69 % disapprove.
Background & Context
President Trump returned to office on January 20 2025. Since then, inflation, soaring gas prices, and the war in Iran have been cited as drivers of declining public sentiment. Political scientists note that midterm elections traditionally punish the president’s party when the incumbent’s approval is low, raising stakes for both parties in 2026.
Data & Statistics
- Quinnipiac (late Sep 2026): Net -27; 34 % approve, 61 % disapprove.
- YouGov (early Oct 2026): Net -26; 36 % approve, 62 % disapprove.
- Emerson College (early Sep 2026): Net -19; 39 % approve, 58 % disapprove.
- Morning Consult (late Sep 2026): Net -14; 42 % approve, 56 % disapprove.
State-level Civiqs data for upcoming campaign stops indicate net ratings of +5 in Alabama, +4 in Oklahoma, and -20 in Texas, with declines of 24-27 points in Ohio, Alaska, Florida and Iowa since his inauguration.
Why It Matters / Impact
Democrats see the low numbers as an opening to target Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas. Republicans rely on Trump’s energized base to offset potential turnout losses among independents and moderates. The divergent state ratings suggest Trump will campaign in both favorable (Alabama, Oklahoma) and hostile (Texas, Ohio) territories, a strategy that could amplify both turnout benefits and liability for GOP candidates.
Official Statements & Responses
White House spokesman Davis Ingle defended the administration’s record, arguing that critics “underestimate” the president’s achievements on prescription-drug pricing, border security, wages, taxes and trade, and that “the doomers and naysayers” have misread public sentiment. The White House declined to comment on the polling figures.
Criticism & Opposition
Sen. John Kennedy (Louisiana) labeled the administration’s taxpayer-funded advertisements “very clearly not campaign ads” and asserted, “You can’t spend public money to promote yourself.”
On-the-Ground Reports
Trump’s campaign itinerary for early October includes rallies in seven states—Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Oklahoma and Texas—where his net approval has fallen sharply since the start of his second term. Civiqs data shows he remains above water only in Alabama and Oklahoma; in the other states, disapproval exceeds approval by double-digit margins.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on the exact magnitude of disapproval. Quinnipiac reports a net of -27, while YouGov records -26, Emerson College -19, and Morning Consult -14. Approval percentages also vary, ranging from 33 % to 39 % across major aggregators. Methodological differences (sample size, weighting, live-interviewer versus online panels) are not fully disclosed, leaving uncertainty about the precise level of public sentiment.
What’s Next
The president’s campaign begins in early October with a rally in Durant, Oklahoma, followed by stops in Mobile, Alabama; Vandalia, Ohio; and additional appearances in Iowa, Florida, Texas and Alaska. The midterm elections will be held in early November 2026, and the final weeks will determine whether Trump’s low approval translates into reduced Republican performance or whether his base turnout offsets the broader disapproval trend.