Full Breakdown
Expanded Early Release Scheme Triggers Prison Population Shifts in England and Wales
By Drooid · · How we work
What the Expanded Scheme Entails
Under the 2026 Sentencing Act, ministers can lower the release point for certain prisoners from 40 percent of a fixed-term sentence to one-third. The first phase, scheduled for 1 October, will see several hundred inmates freed, with additional releases planned over the next year. The programme excludes individuals convicted of offences such as child-grooming gang indecent assault and manslaughter, meaning the killers of PC Andrew Harper (killed in 2019) are barred from early release.
Legislative Background
The 2026 Sentencing Act provides the legal basis for the expansion, allowing the government to adjust release thresholds. The scheme builds on a prior early-release process introduced by the previous Conservative administration, which freed 13,325 prisoners between 17 October 2023 and 9 September 2024.
Timeline of Key Events
- 17 October 2023 (scheduled) – Start of the earlier Conservative-run early-release programme.
- 9 September 2024 (occurred) – End of that programme, having released 13,325 prisoners.
- 6 September 2024 (occurred) – Prison population peaks at 88,521 following public disorder after the Southport killings.
- 10 September 2024 (occurred) – Government launches the new early-release scheme.
- 1 October (scheduled) – First wave of the expanded scheme releases several hundred inmates.
- June 29 (occurred) – Prison population recorded at 85,761, later rising by 1,738 to 87,499.
Data and Statistics
- Total releases to late March 2026: 70,066 prisoners, according to the Ministry of Justice (MoJ).
- Current prison population: 1,022 below the September 2024 record high of 88,521, with the latest MoJ weekly figure at 87,499.
- Recent increase: From 85,761 on June 29 to 87,499, a rise of 1,738 people (?2 %).
- Projected releases for the year: Around 5,000 prisoners, reduced from an earlier estimate of 6,000 after exclusions were applied.
Official Statements & Responses
Prime Minister Andy Burnham defended the expansion as essential to avert a collapse of the justice system after a summer of intense media focus on prison overcrowding. Justice Secretary Alex Norris later apologized to victims and their families for the uncertainty created during the scheme’s rollout, noting that the exclusions were introduced to address public concerns. Both officials emphasized that the programme aims to create space in the overcrowded male prison estate while maintaining public safety.
Criticism & Opposition
The scheme has provoked public outrage, particularly after images of released inmates celebrating outside HMP Swaleside in Kent. One inmate’s public praise of Labour leader Keir Starmer amplified the controversy. Critics argue that releasing large numbers of prisoners, even with exclusions, risks undermining confidence in the criminal-justice system. Victims’ groups have voiced disappointment that the original plan would have allowed the convicted killers of PC Harper to qualify for early release, prompting calls for stricter safeguards.
Impact and Ongoing Trends
Following the scheme’s launch, prison numbers fell sharply but began to rise again in early 2025, stabilising between 86,000 and 88,000 since then. The fluctuating figures suggest that while the expanded early-release programme provides temporary relief, the underlying pressures of rising incarceration rates persist. Authorities continue to monitor the balance between alleviating overcrowding and maintaining public confidence in the justice system.