Full Breakdown
Ken Paxton blames Trump’s Dallas convention for slipping poll numbers in Texas Senate race
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Paxton’s private admission that the GOP midterm convention hurt his campaign
An audio recording obtained by *The New York Times* captures Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaking to a small group of conservative donors and lobbyists in Washington, D.C. He refers to former President Donald Trump’s first-ever Republican midterm convention held in Dallas on Sept. 9-10, 2026.
Background & Context
Paxton is the Trump-endorsed Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate seat from Texas. He defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the May primary runoff, despite establishment Republicans favoring Cornyn. His Democratic opponent, State Rep. James Talarico, is seeking the first Democratic Senate victory in Texas since 1993.
Data & Statistics
- Polls – A Big Data poll (Sept. 24-26) shows Talarico leading Paxton 43.6% to 39.3% among registered voters. The RealClearPolitics average places Talarico at 47.6% and Paxton at 44.7%.
- Campaign finances – GOP-aligned super PACs have spent $166 million on ads for Paxton, with an additional $119 million reported as reserved. Talarico’s campaign has raised more than $21.5 million, while Paxton’s war chest is under $1 million.
Official Statements & Responses
- President Donald Trump asserted that the convention “really helped Ken Paxton.”
- Paxton campaign adviser Nick Maddux dismissed the *Times* report as “manipulated nonsense” and claimed an internal poll shows Paxton ahead by three points.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune said, “I think he can win, and I think he will win.”
Criticism & Opposition
- GOP strategist Karl Rove questioned the spending strategy, stating, “No, but they’re going to have to do it, and that’s just the start,” and later asked, “Can you make this sh*t up? I mean, really?” regarding the convention’s impact.
- Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) echoed the sentiment that the top-of-ticket race is not helping down-ballot candidates.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on the size of Talarico’s lead, ranging from a 2-point gap (RealClearPolitics) to a 6-point gap (Marist). No public polling directly measures the convention’s effect on voter sentiment, leaving Paxton’s claim about “dropping numbers” unverified.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Our latest poll from the last week has Ken Paxton leading by three points, and every serious pollster will tell you that our numbers have improved since early September.” — Nick Maddux
- “The fact that we had such a successful convention really helped Ken Paxton,” — Donald Trump
- “To be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped,” — Ken Paxton
What’s Next
Texas voters must register by Oct. 5, and Election Day is scheduled for Nov. 3. The outcome will determine whether the GOP retains a Senate seat it has held since 1994.