New Commission on Electoral Reform Shows Proportional Systems Would Prevent a Majority

Recent polling in Britain shows an unprecedented fragmentation of the party system: Labour leads with about 26 % of the vote, Reform follows at 23 % and the Conservatives at 20 %, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats each sit around 10 %. The Labour Party, now led by Prime Minister Andy Burnham, has announced a national commission to examine electoral reform. The proposal enjoys backing from more than 100 Labour MPs and parties including the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru. Analysts note that the current first-past-the-post (FPTP) system can turn small vote-share shifts into large swings in seats, contributing to a “hung-parliament” risk.

The Guardian

Modelling by the research group More in Common, incorporated into the Guardian analysis, compares three proportional-representation (PR) systems—regional party list, single transferable vote (STV) and additional member system (AMS)—with the existing FPTP model. Under FPTP Labour would secure roughly 39 % of seats with 26 % of the vote, still short of a majority and likely needing Liberal Democrat and SNP support. The PR scenarios would give Labour between 26 % and 27 % of seats, matching its vote share. Smaller parties would gain substantially: the Greens would rise from three seats under FPTP to over 50 seats in each PR model, and the far-right Restore Britain party would increase from one seat to more than 30. No PR system projected a single party majority; coalition or minority governments would be the norm.

The Guardian

He warned that a government could win power with less than 30 % of the vote, describing it as potentially divisive.

The Guardian

• “Despite only being four points ahead of the Tories, our model shows Labour winning double the number of seats under first past the post, while a proportional system would give us a parliament which better reflects the close three-horse race we now have between Labour, Reform and the Conservatives.” — Andy Burnham

The Guardian

• “We will contest the next election with a manifesto commitment to change the electoral system so that everyone’s vote counts and everyone’s voice is heard.” — Andy Burnham

The Guardian