Full Breakdown
U.S.–China Tariff Deal Cuts Most Farm Goods but Leaves Soybeans Untouched
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Deal Leaves Soybeans Untouched
On September 28, 2026, the United States and China announced matching lists of tariff reductions covering roughly $60 billion in two-way trade. China eliminated its 10 percent retaliatory duty on a wide range of U.S. farm products—including corn, wheat, sorghum, rice, barley, beef, dairy, vegetable oils, meals, fish, seafood, logs and wood—but soybeans remained subject to the 10 percent tariff. The omission disappointed U.S. growers, as soybeans are the single largest American agricultural export to China.
Background and Trade Context
The agreement was negotiated through the newly-established Board of Trade and confirmed by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. In addition to the agricultural cuts, the two sides extended their broader trade truce—first struck in Busan—to January 10, 2027, giving more time for a fuller settlement. China also pledged to import 10 million metric tons of U.S. coal in 2027-28, signaling the deal’s reach beyond agriculture.
Market Reactions and Data
- The tariff relief applies to about $30 billion of goods on each side.
- China committed to buying 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028, but purchases will be made by state-owned entities that are not subject to the tariff, allowing them to retain the duty as a bargaining tool.
- To date, China has purchased $4 billion of agricultural goods through the Board of Trade, suggesting a potential additional $10 billion of spending.
- Analysts estimate the deal could generate $1.2 billion of extra Chinese demand per week through 2026 for other farm products.
- The market’s lack of detail on a $17 billion pro-rated purchase list and on timing of soybean purchases spurred fund managers with large long positions in soybeans and corn to sell on the announcement day.
Official Statements & Responses
Greer, Bessent and He Lifeng jointly announced the tariff cuts and the truce extension, emphasizing that the agreement “provides meaningful cost advantage” for U.S. corn, wheat and sorghum exporters. They noted that a new bilateral agriculture working group will reconvene before the end of the year to address the soybean issue.
Verbatim Quotes
- “And so the buying of the $4 billion is an indication that they’re still likely to spend another $10 billion,” — Private Buyers Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource Company, explains the significance
What’s Next
Stakeholders will watch whether China’s state-linked buyers increase actual soybean purchases despite the tariff and whether the upcoming agriculture working group can secure soybean relief before the January 10, 2027 truce deadline.
