Tiffany’s Break with Trump Tightens Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race

A Marquette Law poll released on September 16-23, 2026 shows Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany and Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley dead-locked for the open governor’s seat in Wisconsin. Among likely voters, Crowley leads 49 % to Tiffany’s 46 %; among registered voters the split is 45 % to 45 % with 9 % undecided. The race is a toss-up according to the Cook Political Report, and the incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers has announced retirement, leaving the swing state’s top office up for grabs in the November 3 midterm election.

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• September poll (843 registered, 692 likely voters) – margin of error 4.8 % (likely) / 4.3 % (registered).

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• August 12-13 poll (500 likely voters) – Crowley 48 % vs. Tiffany 44 %; margin 4.4 %.

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• July 20-24 poll (800 registered voters) – Crowley 46 % vs. Tiffany 43 %; margin 3.5 %.

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• Favorability: Crowley 31 % favorable / 44 % unfavorable; Tiffany 39 % favorable / 45 % unfavorable.

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• President Donald Trump’s approval in Wisconsin fell to 38 % (disapproval 60 %).

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Crowley’s campaign manager Garren Randolph warned that “unprecedented spending from Trump-aligned billionaires” is fueling Tiffany’s bid, citing contributions of nearly $10 million from three donors and over $15 million from groups such as Richard Uihlein’s super PAC and the Koch network.

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Tiffany also pledged to return the state’s $3 billion surplus, lower property taxes and cut income taxes by 10 % for working families.

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• “We've seen unprecedented spending from Trump-aligned billionaires, with three of them putting nearly $10 million into Tom Tiffany's campaign and outside groups like Richard Uihlein's super PAC and the Koch network adding more than $15 million more, and Wisconsinites are still choosing David Crowley because they know David gets it and has their back,” — Campaign Manager Garren Randolph

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• “I believe the Great Lakes are the Great Lakes and should stay Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, Lake Ontario — I mean, unless you’re suggesting we name Lake Michigan, Lake Wisconsin,” — Republican Representative Tom Tiffany

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Wisconsin voters will decide the governor’s race on November 3, the scheduled date for the statewide election. Both campaigns are expected to intensify advertising and fundraising as the midterms approach.

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