Full Breakdown
Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate Campaign Stumbles After Trump-Hosted Midterm Convention
By Drooid · · How we work
The Convention Fallout
The remark, obtained by The New York Times and released on September 30, was made in response to a question about whether the event was a “drag.” Paxton’s comment has become a focal point in a Senate race that remains within a few points as early voting begins.
Campaign Context and Recent Polls
Paxton, the GOP nominee, defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 runoff and now faces Democrat State Rep. James Talarico. RealClearPolitics’ average shows Talarico ahead 47.6 % to 44.7 %. Other September surveys echo that lead, with margins ranging from one to six points. Paxton’s campaign cites an internal poll that places him three points ahead, but it has not been released.
Official Statements from Campaign and Opponents
Senior adviser Nick Maddux called the Times report “manipulated nonsense” and said “every serious pollster will tell you that our numbers have improved since early September.” Talarico has urged Paxton to agree to a debate, emphasizing the need for voters to hear both sides.
Criticism of Paxton’s Record
Beyond the convention comment, Paxton’s handling of sexual-abuse cases has drawn criticism. SAFE Austin’s Allie Susin warned that generous plea deals “skew statistics” and reduce resources for survivors, raising broader concerns about Paxton’s suitability for the Senate.
Conflicting Poll Reports & Gaps
The campaign’s internal poll claims a three-point lead, while publicly available surveys from RealClearPolitics, Pulse, Marist, Emerson and Big Data consistently show Talarico ahead. No independent source has verified the internal poll’s methodology, highlighting a clear discrepancy between the campaign’s claim and external data.
Verbatim Quotes
- “So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good,” — Ken Paxton
- “Our latest poll from the last week has Ken Paxton leading by three points, and every serious pollster will tell you that our numbers have improved since early September.” — Nick Maddux
- “He was gone a lot, he was traveling, he was out,” — Mark Penley, former deputy attorney general
- “The criticism has been that I let a child predator out after one day,” — Ken Paxton
- “There’s no support, so you’re forced to handle it on your own,” — Allie Susin, SAFE Austin
What’s Next
Early voting runs Oct. 19-30, with Election Day on Nov. 3. Paxton is scheduled to appear with President Donald Trump at a Texas rally, while Talarico continues to press for a televised debate. Both campaigns are expected to intensify advertising as the final weeks approach, and the convention controversy will likely remain a talking point in the closing stretch.