Full Breakdown
Paxton vs. Talarico: A High-Stakes Texas Senate Race
By Drooid · · How we work
Background & Context
Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general and the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate, faces Democrat state Rep. James Talarico in the November 3 midterm election. Paxton secured the GOP nomination after defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the May 19, 2026 runoff, a contest endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Talarico, a former Presbyterian seminarian and middle-school teacher, seeks the first Democratic win for a Texas Senate seat in decades.
Spending Surge and Advertising Blitz
Republican-aligned groups have poured more than $155 million into TV and digital ads, with the Senate Leadership Fund’s Texas PAC contributing over $119 million as of September 27, 2026. By contrast, Talarico’s campaign has spent $63.4 million and reserved $56.4 million for advertising. The higher rates paid by national super-PACs give Republicans roughly a 4-to-1 raw-spend advantage.
Polling Landscape
Public polls in September show Talarico ahead by one to six points (Real Clear Politics average 47.6 % to Paxton’s 44.6 %). Paxton’s campaign released an internal poll two weeks after the Trump-hosted midterm convention indicating a three-point lead.
Official Statements & Responses
- Donald Trump defended the convention, citing “107 million views.”
- Paxton senior adviser Nick Maddux said “every serious pollster will tell you that our numbers have improved since early September.”
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressed confidence in Paxton’s chances.
- Senate Leadership Fund executive director Alex Latcham framed the outlay as an effort to defeat “far-left liberals like James Talarico.”
Criticism & Opposition
Democrats have highlighted Paxton’s handling of the Adam Hoffman case, labeling him a “pedophile protector.” Paxton noted the judge imposed a 60-day sentence despite a plea offer for a one-day term. Talarico has repeatedly challenged Paxton to a televised debate, citing three prior refusals.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Viewership figures for the Dallas convention differ: Trump claimed 107 million views, while Nielsen data recorded about 7 million.
- Discrepancies exist between the campaign-sponsored internal poll favoring Paxton and independent public polls favoring Talarico; no third-party verification of the internal poll is available.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I think the fact that we had such a successful convention really helped Ken Paxton,” — Donald Trump
- “Every serious pollster will tell you that our numbers have improved since early September,” — Nick Maddux
- “The criticism has been that I let a child predator out having [served in jail] one day. Well, guess what? They served 60 days. It wasn’t what we wanted, but we did not control that situation,” — Ken Paxton
- “I’ve accepted four local TV debates, but we haven’t heard from you, and we’re running out of time,” — James Talarico
- “I think he can win, and I think he will win,” — John Thune
What’s Next
Early voting begins on Monday, Oct. 19, with the registration deadline on Oct. 5. Donald Trump will hold a rally on Oct. 1 in Durant, Oklahoma, and will continue touring Texas before Election Day. Both campaigns have yet to confirm participation in a televised debate.