Full Breakdown
Democrats Target Republican Strongholds in 2026 Senate Race
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Kentucky Democrats are betting on a “once-in-a-generation” chance to flip the state’s U.S. Senate seat, a seat long held by Republicans. The effort comes as polling shows Democrats competitive in ten states that former President Donald Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024, including Kentucky, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, Florida, Kansas, Nebraska, Mississippi and South Carolina. To secure a Senate majority, Democrats must defend two seats in Trump-won states and win four Republican-held seats, with at least two of those in the double-digit states.
Background & Context
The 2026 midterms arrive with Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority and a map that initially favored them. However, Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a historic low of 32% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, and his war with Iran and tariff-driven price spikes have made cost of living a top voter concern. The White House is deploying Trump on the campaign trail in states such as Ohio, Texas and Nebraska, while Republicans are reallocating resources toward traditional strongholds.
Data & Statistics
- Internal polling places Democrat Charles Booker within single digits of Republican Rep. Andy Barr for the Kentucky Senate seat; Barr holds a $2 million cash advantage.
- AdImpact reports Republicans outspending Democrats by millions on future ad reservations in Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas.
- In South Carolina, Democratic candidate Annie Andrews entered July with more than $4 million on hand, contrasting with Republican Sen. Darline Graham’s $250,000 cash on hand as of August 5.
- Trump’s 2024 margins in the targeted states ranged from 13 points in Florida to 31 points in Kentucky.
Official Statements & Responses
Political science professor David Hopkins of Boston College notes that the swing away from Republicans appears larger in “red America” than in “blue America,” putting heavily Trump-won states into play. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, a potential 2028 presidential contender, has endorsed Booker and is expected to appear at get-out-the-vote events. Meanwhile, Trump dismissed the polls as “fake” during a recent rally.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We have a shot here in Kentucky to flip this seat, and we need to do it now," said Pamela Stevenson, minority floor leader of the Kentucky House.” — Pamela Stevenson
- “They'll likely be together at get-out-the-vote events down the homestretch of the campaign," Hyers said.” — Kentucky House. Eric Hyers, Beshear's 2019 and 2023 campaign manager
- “Our goal has always been a Democratic Senate majority, and the pathways to get there have only gotten bigger since the start of the cycle," said Lauren French, a spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC.” — Lauren French, a spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC
