Early Voting Trends Show Democratic Advantage Ahead of the 2026 Midterm Elections

Across at least 29 states, more than 690,000 voters have cast ballots early, and Democratic early-vote requests exceed Republican requests in several key contests. In Iowa, Democrats account for 67 % of ballot requests, up from 54 % at the same point in 2024. Pennsylvania shows a Democratic share of 66 % (versus 62 % in 2024), and Maine records 57 % (up from 53 %). North Carolina’s State Board of Elections reports 42 % of early requests from Democrats, compared with 36 % two years earlier.

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Early-voting data are tracked by CNN, the Associated Press and Catalist, which supplies analytics to campaigns and researchers. Historically, mail-in voting has leaned Democratic, while early-in-person voting has been more evenly split. The 2022 midterms saw roughly 57 million pre-election votes; the 2024 cycle recorded about 112 million total votes, indicating growing reliance on early voting.

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• Age profile: Voters 65 + constitute a larger share of ballot requests in 2026 than at the same stage in 2022 or 2024 in nearly every state with comparable data.

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• Virginia: The state, which has reported the highest total early votes, shows a stark partisan split. Localities that supported former Vice President Kamala Harris by more than 20 points in 2024 are at 78 % of their 2024 early-voting turnout, whereas areas that backed former President Donald Trump by the same margin are at 61 %.

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• House districts: In Virginia’s 1st District, Democratic primary participants lead Republicans by 15 points; in the 2nd District, the lead is 18 points. In 2024 the 1st District favored Republicans by about 3 points and the 2nd District favored Democrats by 2 points.

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• Statewide primary gap: Democratic primary participants outpace Republicans by roughly 18 points, up from an 8-point advantage at the same point in 2024.

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The early-voting advantage suggests higher Democratic enthusiasm, which could translate into stronger turnout in contested races such as Virginia’s two House seats and other swing districts. Since early voters tend to be older and historically lean Democratic, the patterns may reinforce that demographic edge. The data also indicate that Republican voters could narrow the gap as Election Day approaches, especially in competitive Senate and House contests.

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The North Carolina State Board of Elections confirms the partisan breakdown of ballot requests. Catalist notes its datasets are used by a range of stakeholders, including Democratic campaigns and academic researchers, to monitor pre-election participation. The Associated Press emphasizes that early-vote figures represent only a fraction of total votes and cannot predict final outcomes.

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Early-vote data are limited primarily to mail ballots; few states have reported substantial in-person early voting, which historically shows a different partisan balance. The demographic skew toward older voters means the early-voter pool is not fully representative of the broader electorate. The secrecy of individual ballots prevents direct measurement of party preference among early voters.

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Election Day is scheduled for November 3. As states continue to process mail ballots and expand in-person early voting, the proportion of early votes is expected to grow, potentially reshaping final totals in closely contested races.

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