Full Breakdown
Shifting Polls Show Conservatives Narrow Lead Over NDP in British Columbia Election Race
By Drooid · · How we work
Background & Context
Premier David Eby called a snap provincial election for Oct. 24, 2026, after the resignation of BC Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay. Interim Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson assumed the role amid a rapidly changing political landscape. Poll analysts described the early election call as “risky,” given volatile voter sentiment in the weeks following the leadership change.
Data & Statistics
| Poll (date range) | Sample | Conservatives | NDP | Greens | Other parties |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos (Sept 25-29, 2026) – online panel of 1,001 adults | ±3.7 pp | 42 % | 40 % | 10 % | 8 % |
| Liaison Strategies (Sept 26-27, 2026) – IVR of 1,000 adults | ±3.1 pp | 40 % (decided + leaning) | 39 % | 11 % | 8 % |
| Leger (Sept 24-28, 2026) – online panel of 1,003 adults | – | 39 % | 36 % | 13 % | 9 % |
Across the three surveys, the top issues remain cost of living/inflation (?56 %), health care (?39 %), and housing affordability (?31 %). Disapproval of the early election hovers around 50 % in the Ipsos and Liaison polls.
Official Statements & Responses
Ipsos senior vice-president Kyle Braid noted that the Conservatives’ gain of seven points since early September coincides with a decline in Premier Eby’s personal favorability, which fell to 37 % favorable and rose to 37 % unfavorable.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The polls differ modestly: Ipsos shows a two-point Conservative lead, Liaison a one-point lead, and Leger three points ahead of the NDP. All surveys exclude roughly a quarter of respondents who are undecided. Margin-of-error ranges (±3.1 pp to ±3.7 pp) overlap with the reported gaps, indicating the race remains statistically close. No poll provides a definitive projection of seat outcomes or turnout.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We did a poll just two weeks ago that was pretty shocking,” — Kyle Braid, senior vice president of Ipsos
- “It’s hard to imagine a worse start to a campaign for the NDP than what we see here,” — Kyle Braid, senior vice president of Ipsos
- “Two elections can produce two mandates that point in opposite directions. A provincial government can promise to require more homes, while a council can promise to allow fewer. Both can win. The question is whose promise takes priority when they cannot both be kept.” — Principal, Liaison Strategies
Why It Matters / Impact
The polling shift places the early election’s outcome in doubt, challenging the NDP’s assumption of a comfortable majority. A narrow or tied result could force the incoming government to negotiate with municipal authorities on housing mandates. Persistent public disapproval of the election timing may pressure both parties to address cost-of-living and health-care concerns more aggressively before the Oct. 24 vote.