Full Breakdown
Renewed Fighting in Northern Ethiopia
By Drooid · · How we work
Collapse of the 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement
Negash Mohammed, a journalist with DW’s Amharic department, identifies three neglected actors as central to the agreement’s failure. First, the role of Eritrea, which fought alongside Ethiopia against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)) in the earlier war, was omitted. Second, the Amhara militia known as Fano was excluded, fostering resentment after the federal government moved to disarm it. Third, hard-line elements within the TPLF felt the peace terms amounted to defeat.
New Rebel Alliance and External Support
The renewed opposition coalition brings together the Oromo Liberation Army, a faction of the Ogaden National Liberation Front, smaller groups from Benishangul-Gumuz, and ethnic militias from Afar. While Eritrea is not formally a member, analysts believe it is providing material support to the rebels. She adds that the alliance’s divergent ethnic interests may limit its durability and that the conflict is likely to remain confined to the northern border zones.
Humanitarian Toll and Mediation Prospects
The renewed hostilities have deepened the humanitarian crisis. Large numbers of Ethiopians remain in makeshift internally displaced persons (IDP) camps, many of whom have not returned to their homes since 2020. Mohammed notes isolated reports of drone strikes on civilian areas and disruptions to electricity, telecommunications and air travel. A UN special envoy, appointed by outgoing Secretary-General António Guterres, is attempting to restart negotiations involving the African Union, regional powers and Egypt. Rodrigues cautions that “intense, but geographically contained” fighting is expected to continue for the foreseeable future and expresses doubt that international or regional mediation will quickly resolve the conflict.