Full Breakdown
Oil Flows Rebound While Iran Holds the Strait of Hormuz Hostage
By Drooid · · How we work
Background & Context
The conflict that began on February 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered Tehran’s attempts to control the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG. On June 18, an Islamabad-mediated understanding between the United States and Iran outlined steps to end hostilities, reopen the strait and restart negotiations, but implementation stalled.
— “The ball is in the US court,” — Khatibzadeh.
Core Event: Crude Export Recovery and Ongoing Vessel Threats
- Crude volumes: Kpler reports 16.5 mbd left the Gulf in September, matching the pre-war average that excludes Iranian output. About 40 % of regional crude now avoids the strait, routed through Saudi and Emirati pipelines, up from 17 % before the war.
- Through-strait flow: i24news cites 10 mbd moving through the waterway in September, with an additional 6 mbd bypassing via pipelines and ports. Alternative trackers estimate 7.4–7.9 mbd, suggesting Kpler’s figure may be optimistic.
- Refined products: A seven-day average of 677,000 bpd of refined products was recorded, far below the 3.6 million bpd shipped before the conflict.
- Ship-to-ship activity: More than 70 % of crude that crossed the strait in August changed tankers offshore; roughly two-thirds of the oil volume now moves via ship-to-ship transfers.
Vessel Attacks
On September 29, three tankers were struck in the strait, bringing the week’s total to four. Two vessels—Mersin Prosperity (299,319-dwt VLCC) and Sinbad (115,949 dwt)—were Liberian-flagged; a third was reported as an LNG tanker. Iran’s Fars News Agency said warning shots were fired at vessels violating the strait, while IRGC spokesperson Brig. Gen.
Official Statements & Responses
- IRGC: Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohebbi warned that unauthorized transits “will be targeted.”
- U.S. Military: CENTCOM continues air-defense and naval support for vessels in the southern corridor.
- U.S. Defense: Admiral Brad Cooper claimed one billion barrels moved through the strait “in the last couple months.” Capt. Tim Hawkins later clarified the figure covered “a few” months and that over 13 mbd passed in the last two weeks, a point contested by several congressional Democrats and intelligence analysts.
Criticism & Opposition
Congressional Democrats and some intelligence analysts have questioned the CENTCOM volume claim, suggesting it may overstate traffic. The Defense Department has rejected the allegation.
On-the-Ground Reports
Maritime-Executive’s verification of the September 29 strikes identified the three vessels as Liberian-flagged tankers; damage details remain limited. Iranian state media cited the Persian Gulf Strait Authority’s non-compliance list for three Emirati-owned tankers—Al Ruwais, Sinbad, and Mersin Prosperity—as evidence of Tehran’s enforcement posture.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Volume estimates: Kpler’s 16.5 mbd total and 10 mbd through-strait figures contrast with TankerTrackers.com’s 7.4 mbd and Vortexa’s 7.9 mbd, indicating tracking uncertainty.
- CENTCOM traffic claim: Admiral Cooper’s “one billion barrels” statement conflicts with Capt. Hawkins’ clarification and external skepticism, leaving recent throughput ambiguous.
- Damage assessment: No confirmed data on the extent of damage to the three September-29 vessels or any casualties is publicly available.
What’s Next
Iran’s seven-day diplomatic initiative remains pending a U.S. response. Tehran has indicated willingness to reopen the strait once the United States provides “objective guarantees,” while the United States continues to escort vessels and monitor Iranian actions. The trajectory of crude and refined-product flows will depend on the outcome of these negotiations and the persistence of vessel-security incidents.