Full Breakdown
Trump Endorses Ken Paxton Amid Massive Outside Spending in Texas Senate Race
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: “Pain in the Ass” Remark and Endorsement
During a manufacturing-industry rally in Denton, Texas, President Donald Trump joked that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was “a pain in the ass” before delivering a full endorsement. The comment was made as Trump toured a Peterbilt Motors factory and was followed by a promise to drive the presidential motorcade to an RNC rally in Durant, Oklahoma.
Background & Context
Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee, has faced legal battles, including a failed Supreme Court lawsuit to overturn the 2020 election results in several battleground states. The 2026 Texas Senate race is a national focus because a Democratic win would flip a seat that has helped the GOP maintain its Senate majority since 1994.
Data & Statistics
- Outside spending: A Republican political action committee spent $131 million over 17 days supporting Paxton, about $7.7 million per day.
- Total ad market: By September’s end, cumulative advertising reached $259 million, surpassing the $202 million spent in the 2024 Cruz-Allred contest. Independent expenditures topped $205 million, with over 98 % directed toward Paxton.
- Broadcast share: Republicans accounted for 72 % of broadcast-ad dollars but only 54 % of gross-ratings-point airings.
- Candidate spending: Paxton’s campaign raised $1.2 million in September and launched a $20 million statewide TV buy. Democrat James Talarico has spent $61 million on ads since the general election began.
- Polling:
- Marist University (Sept 17-20) – Talarico 50 % vs. Paxton 44 %.
- Fox News (Sept 24-28) – Talarico 51 % vs. Paxton 49 %.
- Texas Tribune tracker (early Oct.) – Talarico 47.3 % vs. Paxton 47.4 %.
- Market odds: Polymarket lists Talarico at 63 % and Paxton at 38 %; Kalshi shows a 62 % vs. 42 % split.
Official Statements & Responses
Trump later said the Dallas convention “might have hurt” campaign numbers but noted he had not heard Paxton’s private comments. Paxton thanked Trump on Truth Social, calling it an “honor” to have the president “by my side.”
Criticism & Opposition
The leaked recording obtained by *The New York Times* captured Paxton saying the September 9-10 convention “dropped our numbers” and describing the party’s position as “not good.” An attendee who opposes Paxton’s campaign provided the audio; three other attendees confirmed Paxton’s presence.
Why It Matters / Impact
The Texas seat is pivotal to the Republican Senate majority, currently a 53-47 split. Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned that a Paxton loss could jeopardize the GOP’s narrow margin and force the party to allocate additional resources in other battleground states. The unprecedented out-of-state spending underscores the race’s national significance.
Timeline
- Sept 9-10: Paxton alleges the Dallas convention hurt campaign numbers.
- Sept 17-20: Marist University poll conducted.
- Sept 24-28: Fox News poll conducted.
- Nov 3 (scheduled): General election for the U.S. Senate seat.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls vary: Marist shows a six-point Democratic lead, Fox News a two-point lead, while the Texas Tribune’s tracker shows the race essentially tied. Market odds favor Talarico, yet the impact of the $259 million ad blitz on voter preferences remains unclear.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Ken Paxton was at my side more than anybody, and I have to always remember that because he could be a pain in the ass sometimes. I'll be honest,” — Donald Trump, president