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Israeli Election Outlook: Identity and Issues Beyond the October 7 Attacks
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Election Landscape Ahead of October 27
Israel’s national election is set for October 27. While the October 7 Hamas attacks remain a reference point, analysts say the vote is not being driven by a single issue. Voters are weighing foreign affairs, security and the economy—each cited by roughly 38-39 % of respondents as top considerations—while the identity of the party leader trails at about 23 % (survey data cited by Prof. Tamar Hermann, director of the Israel Democracy Institute’s Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research).
Polling Data Shows Entrenched Views
The latest IDI-based survey indicates that the October 7 events have reinforced, rather than reshaped, existing partisan alignments. Among secular and traditional non-religious Jews, about three-quarters view the attacks as central to their vote, whereas only a quarter of Haredi voters do so. A separate July poll by N12 finds that two-thirds of undecided voters still list the attacks as their top issue, suggesting that the event continues to mobilize swing voters without creating new political camps.
Expert Analysis
Prof. Hermann argues that the electorate’s memory of the attacks has faded; public-memory research suggests an event’s influence wanes after six to ten months, and three years exceeds that window. She notes that while voters may have become more radical in their pre-existing orientations—“If people were on the Left, they are perhaps further to the Left”—their core stance on Palestinian self-determination remains unchanged. The demand for a state-led commission of inquiry into the attacks has also softened, with respondents indicating no strong preference between a commission and other investigative forms.
Verbatim Quotes
- “If people were on the Left, they are perhaps further to the Left,” — Prof. Tamar Hermann, director of IDI’s Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research
- “The idea that it is all about Bibi, or only Bibi, is a misperception. What we see, and it’s very interesting, is that there is no single issue around which these elections revolve,” — Prof. Tamar Hermann, director of IDI’s Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research
These observations point to an election shaped more by long-standing identity debates than by a singular focus on the October 7 attacks or any individual political figure.