Full Breakdown
Merz Links Russian Hybrid Threats to AfD Rise, Reaffirms Ukraine Support
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Core Event: Merz Accuses Russia of Backing AfD and Warns of Hybrid Attacks (October 1)
On October 1, Chancellor Friedrich Merz delivered a speech in Münster marking the award of the 2026 Westphalian Peace Prize to NATO. He warned that Germany faced “more hybrid attacks from Russia” and asserted that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was being supported by Moscow. Merz framed the alleged Russian backing as part of a broader effort to divide German society and weaken support for Ukraine.
Background & Context: AfD Gains and German Support for Ukraine
The AfD, a party that calls for an end to German military aid to Ukraine and for the resumption of Russian gas imports, won two regional elections in eastern German states in the month preceding Merz’s remarks. The party now leads in major national polls, challenging the governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its coalition partner. Germany has become Ukraine’s largest European military supporter, allocating “hundreds of billions of euros” to rebuild its armed forces and sustain aid to Kyiv.
Data & Statistics: Public Opinion and Election Results
- A recent survey for German public television found that 42 % of respondents believe Germany’s military support for Ukraine “goes too far,” the highest proportion recorded to date.
- The AfD’s recent regional victories and its poll lead represent a significant shift in the German political landscape, though exact vote shares were not disclosed in the sources.
Official Statements & Responses
German government. Merz emphasized that Germany would continue “all-out assistance” to Ukraine—militarily, politically, financially and economically—despite anticipated hybrid attacks.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We will not let ourselves be divided — not by hybrid attacks, not by hate stirred up on social media by Moscow-controlled bots and not by the slogans of the AfD and their Russian backers,” — Chancellor Friedrich Merz
- “We are preparing for further hybrid attacks, including serious ones,” — Chancellor Friedrich Merz
- “If we fail to rein in Moscow, the Russian war machine will, sooner or later, turn against us and against NATO,” — Chancellor Friedrich Merz
- “Ukraine must get through this winter, and I am convinced it will. It can count on our help,” — Chancellor Friedrich Merz
- “Russia’s subsequent assessment of that meeting has shown that Russia is apparently not at all interested in serious talks at this time,” — Chancellor Friedrich Merz
Impact and Implications
Merz’s linkage of Russian hybrid tactics to the domestic rise of the AfD underscores a strategic narrative that external aggression and internal political fragmentation are intertwined. By portraying the AfD as a conduit for Moscow’s influence, the chancellor aims to rally public and parliamentary support for continued Ukrainian aid and for meeting NATO’s defense-spending targets. The statements also signal to European allies that Germany intends to maintain a firm stance against perceived Russian destabilisation, even as diplomatic channels remain strained. The combination of heightened hybrid-threat warnings, domestic electoral pressures, and sustained military commitments positions Germany at a pivotal juncture in both its internal politics and its role within the broader NATO alliance.