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10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.33%, Highest Since 2002

By Drooid · Oct 2, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

US Treasury Yields Rise

U.S. Treasury yields rose to 5.33% on the 10-year, highest since April 2002.
The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.6702%, highest since July 2002.
Global bond markets sold off as investors cited inflation, large fiscal deficits, and higher energy prices.
Treasury issuance rose to fund U.S. deficits while AI-related capital demand cut bond buying.
Higher long-term yields raise borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards worldwide.

Summary

Fed Holds Rates

Federal Reserve (Fed) FedWatch Tool indicated a 74.0% probability of a rate hold at October FOMC meeting, up from 62.4%.
Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warned more time may be needed to assess additional rate hikes.
Micron Technology reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $54.23 billion and adjusted EPS of $33.42, beating forecasts.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.59% as Micron shares gained 3.03% and SK Hynix ADRs climbed over 5%.

History

Historical Context

In March 2002, the U.S. Treasury’s 10-year yield surged to 5.33%, prompting a sharp bond-market sell-off after the dot-com bust. The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Alan Greenspan, kept the federal funds rate at 1.75% while the budget deficit topped $300 billion that year. Today's 10-year yield of 5.33% mirrors that 2002 peak, as the Fed’s Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and investors weigh inflation, deficits, and AI-driven capital demands. If history repeats, sustained high yields could tighten mortgage financing, pressure semiconductor firms like Micron Technology and SK Hynix, and force fiscal tightening.

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US Treasury Yields Rise

U.S. Treasury yields rose to 5.33% on the 10-year, highest since April 2002.
The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.6702%, highest since July 2002.
Global bond markets sold off as investors cited inflation, large fiscal deficits, and higher energy prices.
Treasury issuance rose to fund U.S. deficits while AI-related capital demand cut bond buying.
Higher long-term yields raise borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards worldwide.

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