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Gold edges up as softer inflation cuts Fed-hike odds

By Drooid · Oct 2, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC · How we work

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Summary

Story summary

Gold prices edged higher Thursday as softer inflation data cut Fed hike odds.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,165.29 per ounce by 2:08 p.m. EDT.
December gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $4,202.30 per ounce.
Markets priced a 31% chance of an October Fed hike, down from 45%.
HSBC cut its 2026 gold forecast to $4,490/oz and 2027 to $4,825/oz.

History

Historical Context

Facing 1970s inflation that peaked at 14.8 % in March 1980, Paul Volcker became Fed Chair in August 1979 and began hikes that lifted the federal funds rate to 20 % by June 1981. The tightening pushed investors into gold, sending the metal to record highs and cementing its hedge role. Today’s gold rally echoes that same flight to safety.

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Story summary

Gold prices edged higher Thursday as softer inflation data cut Fed hike odds.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,165.29 per ounce by 2:08 p.m. EDT.
December gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $4,202.30 per ounce.
Markets priced a 31% chance of an October Fed hike, down from 45%.
HSBC cut its 2026 gold forecast to $4,490/oz and 2027 to $4,825/oz.

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