Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Heats Up: Paxton vs. Talarico Amid Fallout From Trump-Led Midterm Convention
By Drooid · · How we work
Background & Context
Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general and the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate, faces Democrat state Rep. James Talarico in a contest that could determine control of the Senate. Paxton secured the GOP nomination by defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn after former President Donald Trump endorsed him on May 19, 2026. The race has become a focal point for national Republicans, with Trump touring a Peterbilt Motors plant in Denton on October 1, 2026, to rally support.
Timeline
- May 19, 2026 – Trump endorses Paxton in the primary runoff.
- September 9-10, 2026 – Trump-hosted “midterm convention” in Dallas, heavily featuring Paxton.
- September 30, 2026 – Audio of Paxton’s private comments about the convention released by The New York Times; Reuters reports the remarks.
- October 1, 2026 – Trump delivers remarks at the Denton factory, calling Paxton “a pain in the ass” and praising his loyalty.
- October 19-30, 2026 – Early voting period (scheduled).
- November 3, 2026 – Election Day (scheduled).
Data & Statistics
- Polling: Decision Desk HQ averages show Talarico at 48 % and Paxton at 45 %; Real Clear Politics averages list Talarico 47.4 % vs. Paxton 44.7 %. All indicate a tight race.
- Campaign spending: Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. super PAC has spent about $20 million on pro-Paxton advertising; a Texas Senate-leadership PAC has allocated roughly $100 million–$125 million. Talarico’s campaign has spent $63.4 million.
- Convention viewership: Trump claimed the Dallas event garnered 107 million views; Nielsen data shows about 7 million viewers.
Official Statements & Responses
- Trump on the Senate ticket: “We’re going to send Ken Paxton to the United States Senate because he is — whether you love him or don’t love him — he’s a little controversial, just slightly.”
- Trump on the convention’s impact: When asked about Paxton’s remarks, Trump said he had not heard them and defended the event, noting its “107 million” viewership figure.
Criticism & Opposition
Sen. John Cornyn, whose seat Paxton now seeks, has declined to assist Paxton’s fundraising, reflecting intra-party wariness. Legal analysts and Democratic opponents have highlighted Paxton’s prior impeachment and ongoing ethics investigations, arguing that his record makes the race unusually costly for Republicans.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Spending totals: Sources differ on the exact amount Trump-aligned groups have spent, ranging from $20 million to $22.2 million for MAGA Inc. and $100 million to $125 million for the Senate-leadership PAC.
- Polling margins: Aggregators show Talarico leading by anywhere from a narrow 0.2-point edge to a 6-point advantage, illustrating a lack of consensus on the race’s exact state.
- Convention audience: Trump’s claim of 107 million views conflicts with Nielsen-measured viewership of roughly 7 million, leaving the true reach of the event uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We’re going to send Ken Paxton to the United States Senate because he is — whether you love him or don’t love him — he’s a little controversial, just slightly,” — President Donald Trump.
- “Every serious pollster will tell you that our numbers have improved since early September,” — Nick Maddux, Paxton senior adviser.
What’s Next
Early voting opens on October 19, 2026, and runs through October 30, 2026, with Election Day set for November 3, 2026. Trump’s red-state tour continues, with additional rallies planned through the final weeks of the campaign. Both campaigns are expected to intensify advertising as the deadline approaches, while legal experts monitor Paxton’s potential use of attorney-general powers in a close result.