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Apple Targets 6 Million iPhone Duo Foldables in 2026, Challenging Samsung’s Lead
By Drooid · · How we work
Apple’s iPhone Duo Launch and Forecast
Apple unveiled the iPhone Duo, its first folding-screen smartphone, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro family in September. Preorders are scheduled to open on October 16, with the device becoming available on October 23. The Duo starts at $1,999 for the 256 GB model in the United States and will be sold in more than 70 countries. Counterpoint Research estimates Apple will sell roughly 6 million units of the iPhone Duo in 2026, a figure that represents about a quarter of the global foldable market.
Foldable Market Outlook and Competitive Landscape
IDC projects global foldable shipments to rise 13 % in 2026, reaching 22.9 million units, and notes that Apple’s entry prevents a contraction that would have otherwise occurred. Counterpoint’s analysis places Apple in second place behind Samsung Electronics, assigning Apple a 25 % market share and Samsung a 38 % share, with Huawei at 22 %. Samsung’s Galaxy Z8 series, launched in August, has generated strong demand; tipster Ice Universe reported on September 6 that global preorders for the Z8 series total 4.7 million to 5.2 million units, with the Galaxy Z Fold8 accounting for roughly 2.89 million of those. Samsung is on track to sell about 5 million Z8 units this year, positioning the two devices as direct competitors in form factor and price.
Production Capacity and Pricing Challenges
Apple has placed additional orders for 1 million units with component suppliers, raising its annual production plan to around 3.8 million units. Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam cautioned that the actual sales volume will depend on how quickly Apple can scale production and overcome supply-chain bottlenecks and price resistance at the $1,999 launch price. Counterpoint Research Director Tarun Pathak described the pricing as “a pretty bold move” for a first-generation foldable, noting it sits roughly $100 above Samsung’s comparable Galaxy Z Fold8.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Separate reporting has suggested Apple’s hoped-for availability could range from 6 million to 8 million units, indicating a narrower margin for error if manufacturing or demand deviates from Counterpoint’s central estimate. No definitive data on actual sales or supply-chain constraints has been released beyond the forecasts cited.
