Full Breakdown
Oil Flow Near Pre-War Levels While Tanker Attacks Persist in the Strait of Hormuz
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Core Event
In the weeks after the U.S.–Israel war with Iran, daily crude oil movement through the Strait of Hormuz has risen to roughly 92 % of its pre-war baseline, yet commercial vessels continue to be struck by unknown projectiles. Kpler data for the final week of September recorded an average of 12 million barrels per day (mbd) transiting the strait, compared with a pre-war baseline of 17 mbd. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported a fire-inducing strike on 1 October 2026 that forced the crew of a tanker to evacuate.
Background & Context
The war that began in February 2026 effectively closed the Hormuz corridor, prompting a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian-flagged tankers in July. Since mid-June the U.S. Navy has provided “air support to ships,” issuing warnings and intercepting drones, missiles and hostile boats. Iran has carried out the highest number of successful attacks on commercial shipping since March, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data monitor.
Data & Statistics
- Crude flow: 12 mbd (Kpler, week to 30 Sept) vs. 17 mbd pre-war; JP Morgan estimates 17.5 mbd (?98 % of pre-war).
- Ship-to-ship transfers: >70 % of crude crossing the strait in August changed tankers offshore; >4 mbd transferred ship-to-ship in the Gulf of Oman during the week to 30 Sept.
- Alternative routes: 40 % of regional crude in September left via overland pipelines, up from 17 % before the war. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline now ships >4 mbd, and almost a quarter of all crude bypasses Hormuz through pipelines to Fujairah (UAE).
- Attacks: 28 Sept – a Kuwait-flagged VLCC hit; 29 Sept – three tankers struck; 1 Oct – a tanker struck, fire onboard, crew safe; 2 Oct – an unnamed Panama-flagged tanker reported hit.
Official Statements & Responses
U.S. Navy data show assistance to vessels increased by one-third in September versus August. Martin Kelly, senior intelligence analyst at EOS Risk Group, said UKMTO issued multiple warnings (e.g., Warning 147-26 on 1 Oct) and advised vessels to transit with caution, maintaining a “SEVERE” regional threat level.
On-the-Ground Reports
Satellite imagery taken on 24 Sept showed six pairs of ships docked near Sohar, Oman, indicating active ship-to-ship transfers. UK-based maritime security firm Marisks identified the 1 Oct vessel as the Kuwait Oil Tanker Company-owned *Kazimah III*, confirming a fire and crew evacuation. Iran’s Fars News Agency, citing local sources, described the incident as a “2.5 million-barrel supertanker” hit 8 km off Oman while on an “unauthorized route.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Estimates of total oil flow through Hormuz vary widely: Kpler (12 mbd), JP Morgan (?17.5 mbd), Vortexa (14 mbd), and Goldman Sachs (>23 mbd including pipelines). The number of attacks also differs; UKMTO tallied 13 vessels hit since 10 Sept, while maritime-executive sources reported four incidents in a single week. No party has claimed responsibility for the 1 Oct strike, and the extent of environmental damage remains unknown.
What’s Next
UKMTO has indicated that its “SEVERE” threat level will remain in place as long as unidentified projectiles continue to be reported. Analysts such as Zane Amundsen of Windward note that AIS-off transits are rising, suggesting actual vessel movements may exceed reported counts. Continued U.S. air-support and naval escort operations are expected to persist while regional actors assess the balance between oil-flow recovery and the risk of further escalation.