Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Rating Plummets to Record Lows Ahead of 2026 Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Record-Low Approval Across Multiple Polls
Recent polling shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to historic lows as the 2026 midterm elections approach. The Associated Press/NORC survey found only 31 % of respondents approved of his job performance, while 69 % disapproved. A Wall Street Journal poll in mid-September reported 37 % approval and 61 % disapproval, and a Quinnipiac University poll in late September recorded 34 % approval and 61 % disapproval. All three surveys place Trump at the lowest point of either of his presidential terms.
Background & Context
When President Trump began his second term, his approval rating stood at 50.5 % with a 44.3 % disapproval. Since then, his numbers have steadily declined amid voter dissatisfaction with the economy, cost-of-living pressures, and foreign-policy challenges such as the ongoing Iran conflict.
Data & Statistics
- AP/NORC poll: 31 % approve, 69 % disapprove; 65 % blame Trump’s policies for high prices; 73 % disapprove of his handling of the economy.
- Wall Street Journal poll: 37 % approve, 61 % disapprove; 65 % say the economy is not strong; 60 % say Trump’s policies have worsened conditions.
- Quinnipiac poll (Sept. 24-27): 34 % approve, 61 % disapprove; 61 % disapprove of his handling of jobs, an all-time high.
- Civiqs tracking poll (Sept. 28): Trump is “underwater” in 39 states, with net approval in only ten states (Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama, West Virginia).
- Immigration: 48 % say his handling has been worse than expected; overall immigration approval sits at 39 %, down from 48 % at the start of his term.
- Iran war: 71 % disapprove of Trump’s handling; 69 % say the war has not been worth fighting.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The three major polls differ by up to 6 percentage points in approval ratings. Methodological details—sample size, weighting, and timing—vary, creating uncertainty about the precise level of public support. No poll provides a breakdown by age, race, or income, leaving gaps in understanding which demographic groups are driving the disapproval. Additionally, while the AP/NORC and Quinnipiac surveys include specific questions on cost-of-living and foreign policy, the Wall Street Journal poll focuses primarily on overall job performance, limiting direct comparability across issue areas.
Why It Matters / Impact
Historically, the president’s party loses congressional seats in midterm elections. Analysts note that the extent to which Trump’s low numbers affect Republican prospects will depend on how closely voters tie down-ballot candidates to the president’s record. Emily Alvarez, an analyst with NORC, warned that “since he’s not on the ballot, the extent to which his numbers do or don’t bode well for either party will depend on how much voters tie the candidates who are on the ballot to President Trump and the way he’s been governing.”
If Republican candidates are perceived as extensions of Trump’s agenda, the party risks further losses in the House and Senate. A strategic distancing could mitigate the impact of the president’s disapproval but may alienate the core MAGA base that fuels turnout.
What’s Next
The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats will be contested, with control of Congress hinging on voter sentiment toward the president’s performance.