Full Breakdown
South Carolina Senate Race Tightens Ahead of 2026 Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Race Overview
Democrat Annie Andrews, a physician and former congressional candidate, trails incumbent Republican Senator Darline Graham by a single point in the latest InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters conducted September 28-29, 2026. The poll shows Graham at 46 % and Andrews at 45 %, with a margin of error of ±2.83 percentage points. The race is the only South Carolina contest currently within the margin of error, prompting Democrats to view the Palmetto State as a potential pickup in the November 3 election.
Recent Polls and Numbers
- InsiderAdvantage (Sept 28-29, 2026): Graham 46 % vs. Andrews 45 %; other candidates 5 %; undecided 4 %.
- Trafalgar Group (Sept 23-25, 2026): Graham 43 % vs. Andrews 42 %; margin ±2.9 %.
- InsiderAdvantage (Sept 8-9, 2026): Graham 45 % vs. Andrews 43 %; margin ±2.83 %.
- YouGov/The Economist (Sept 25-28, 2026): Democrats hold a 15-point generic-ballot advantage, 53 % to 38 % among likely voters.
- Civiqs (2024-2025 tracking): 50 % of South Carolina voters disapprove of former President Donald Trump, while 44 % approve.
Historical polling in 2020 showed Graham leading Democrat Jaime Harrison by 2-3 points, yet she won re-election by 10 points. At the presidential level, Trump carried South Carolina by 18 points in 2024, 12 points in 2020, and 14 points in 2016. The state last elected a Democratic senator in 1998 (Ernest Hollings).
Campaign Strategies and Statements
Andrews’ team emphasized a platform of tax cuts, suspension of the gas tax, and combating waste and fraud in Washington. Graham’s campaign has not responded to the request for comment.
Historical Context and Electoral Landscape
Graham was appointed after the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, and secured the Republican nomination with former President Trump’s endorsement. South Carolina’s electorate remains deeply polarized: urban centers such as Charleston and Columbia lean Democratic, while rural and suburban areas favor Republicans.
Outlook and Election Logistics
Political analysts differ on the race’s outlook: the Cook Political Report rates it “Likely Republican,” whereas Sabato’s Crystal Ball deems it “Safe Republican.” Voter registration must be postmarked by October 5; early voting runs October 19-31, and absentee ballot applications are due October 23 at 5 p.m. Polling trends will continue to be monitored as the November 3 contest approaches.