Texas Senate Race: Debate Deadlock Between Ken Paxton and James Talarico

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico have not agreed on a televised debate as the November 3 election approaches. Paxton’s campaign has declined multiple invitations, including a proposed CNN forum, while Talarico has challenged the Republican to a Fox News showdown. Republican strategist Karl Rove warned that avoiding a head-to-head could hurt Paxton, and former President Donald Trump has both mocked and praised him in recent rallies. The contest remains within a few points in the latest polling.

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Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on corruption charges but was acquitted by the Senate. Trump’s endorsement of Paxton over former Senator John Cornyn intensified intra-party scrutiny; Rove later said the race would be “over” if Cornyn had been the nominee.

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• A poll by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (Sept. 15-19) of 1,800 likely voters showed Talarico at 47 %, Paxton at 46 %, 3 % supporting another candidate and 4 % undecided.

Newsweek

• A Fox News poll the same week gave Talarico an 8-point net-positive personal rating, while Paxton was “underwater.”

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• Early voting runs from October 19 through October 30, with Election Day on November 3.

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• Rove argued that a debate is essential for Paxton, questioning whether the attorney general has “the guts” to go on the offensive.

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• Paxton adviser Nick Maddux dismissed a New York Times audio clip of Paxton criticizing the party’s midterm convention as “manipulated nonsense” and said “every serious pollster will tell you that our numbers have improved since early September.”

Texas Tribune

• Fox News indicated it would host a debate if both candidates commit to appearing.

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Talarico has framed the debate issue as voter transparency, leaving a voicemail urging Paxton to “go into the lion’s den” on Fox News. He has also highlighted Paxton’s handling of the Adam Hoffman case, accusing the attorney general of offering a plea deal that resulted in a 60-day sentence for a child-abuse offender.

Texas Tribune

Polling shows a razor-thin margin, but surveys vary between a narrow Democratic lead and a slight Republican advantage. No formal debate date has been set despite offers from Fox News and statements from both campaigns that a debate “would be of interest.”

Newsweek

• “If he doesn’t debate, I think he loses,” — Karl Rove

The Hill

• “I’ve accepted four local TV debates, but we haven’t heard from you, and we’re running out of time,” — Rep. James Talarico

Texas Tribune

• “If John Cornyn were the nominee, this race would be over,” — Karl Rove

Newsweek

• “Ken Paxton was at my side more than anybody, and I have to always remember that because he could be a pain in the ass sometimes. I'll be honest,” — Donald Trump

Newsweek

With early voting underway and the election slated for November 3, the final weeks will test whether Paxton concedes to a debate or relies on advertising and Trump-driven outreach to close the gap. The outcome will determine if the race flips a historically Republican Senate seat.

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