Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Tightens as Democrat James Talarico Edges Republican Ken Paxton in Late-September Polls
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: A Near-Tie for the Lone Star Senate Seat
In the 2026 U.S. Senate race, Democrat state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are locked in a statistically close contest. A New York Times/Siena University poll conducted in late September placed Talarico six points ahead of Paxton. A Fox News poll of likely voters released in the same period gave Talarico a 51 %–49 % lead, a two-point margin that falls within the poll’s sampling error. PollsMax’s average of recent surveys, cited by Newsweek, indicates a razor-thin 0.2-point lead for Talarico.
Background & Context
Texas has not elected a Democrat to a statewide office in 32 years, a streak that fuels both optimism and skepticism among observers.
Data & Statistics
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Overall poll lead (late September) | Talarico +6 points | New York Times/Siena |
| Likely-voter lead (Fox) | Talarico 51 % vs. Paxton 49 % | Fox News |
| Registered-voter lead (Fox) | Talarico +7 points | Fox News |
| PollsMax average lead | Talarico +0.2 points | Newsweek |
| Personal rating (Fox) | Talarico +8 (52 % favorable) vs. Paxton –18 (40 % favorable) | Fox News |
| Demographic support (Fox) | Talarico: Black 79 %, Hispanic 64 %, voters < 35 % 62 %; Paxton: White evangelical 74 %, rural 57 % | Fox News |
| Issue-based advantage (Fox) | Talarico leads on cost of living, AI, Trump importance; Paxton leads on immigration | Fox News |
Criticism & Opposition
Political scientists note the unusual dynamics of Paxton’s candidacy. Mark P. Jones of Rice University disputes the claim that Paxton’s poll performance is statistically typical and points out that Democratic dislike for Paxton exceeds that for former Senator John Cornyn in 2020.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The polling landscape shows divergent margins: the New York Times poll indicates a six-point Democratic edge, the Fox News likely-voter poll shows a two-point edge, and the PollsMax average suggests a virtually even race. No source provides a definitive post-primary voter-turnout projection, leaving uncertainty about how the “coin-flip” situation described by Jones will resolve.
Verbatim Quotes
- “From a pure statistical perspective, it's incorrect,” — Mark P. Jones, political scientist, Rice University
- “Paxton is a weak Republican nominee in a tough Republican year, so it will cost Texas and national donors many tens of millions of dollars to, perhaps, elevate Paxton over Talarico,” — Cal Jillson, political science professor, Southern Methodist University
What’s Next
Early voting in Texas begins on October 19 and runs through October 30, with Election Day scheduled for November 3. The final weeks of the campaign are expected to feature a surge of advertising from both parties as analysts assess whether negative ads can shift the tightly balanced electorate.