Full Breakdown
Republicans Deploy Record Outside Spending to Defend Ken Paxton in Texas Senate Race
By Drooid · · How we work
The Spending Surge
In September 2026, Republican-aligned outside groups poured an unprecedented $122 million into television, radio and digital ads supporting Attorney General Ken Paxton and attacking Democratic challenger James Talarico. Federal Election Commission filings show that the super-PAC Texas PAC alone recorded $131 million in independent expenditures between September 13 and September 30, averaging about $7.7 million per day. Across the general election through the end of September, total independent spending by outside groups of both parties exceeded $205 million, with more than 98 percent directed toward Paxton. By the same point, the Democratic campaign had spent $61 million on its own ads.
Background & Context
Paxton secured the Republican nomination by defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the May 2026 primary runoff, a result that unsettled establishment Republicans who warned that a Paxton victory could jeopardize the party’s Senate majority. The Texas seat has been held by Republicans since 1994, and a Democratic win would be the first statewide victory for the party since 1988. Senate Majority Leader John Thune oversees a 53-47 Republican majority, meaning the GOP can afford only two additional seat flips to retain control.
Data & Statistics
- Outside spending: $122 million in September alone; $131 million by Texas PAC (FEC filings); total independent expenditures > $205 million (FEC data).
- Future commitments: $66 million in airtime reserved through Election Day (AdImpact).
- Candidate fundraising (through June 30): Talarico’s campaign raised $31.85 million; Paxton’s campaign raised $9.15 million (FEC data).
- Ad market share: Republicans accounted for 72 percent of broadcast-ad spending but only 54 percent of gross ratings points (AdImpact).
- Poll averages (Sept 8-26): RealClearPolitics aggregate placed Talarico at 47.6 percent and Paxton at 44.7 percent, a 2.9-point Democratic lead. Separate surveys from Texas Public Opinion Research, Marist, Texas Southern University/YouGov, and Emerson College all showed Talarico leading by 2-6 points, each within typical margins of error.
Official Statements & Responses
Paxton’s campaign spokeswoman Madison Cervy described Talarico’s supporters as “too radical for Texas” and warned they pose a danger to schools.
Timeline
- June 30: FEC data show Talarico’s campaign raised $31.85 million; Paxton’s raised $9.15 million.
- September 13-30: Texas PAC files multiple FEC reports documenting $131 million in independent expenditures; September 14 report names treasurer Cabell Hobbs.
- September 8-26: Polling period for RealClearPolitics aggregate and several individual surveys.
- November 3 (scheduled): General election for the U.S. Senate seat.
What’s Next
Texans will cast ballots on November 3. The decisive factor will be whether the massive advertising push can shift voter preferences enough to offset the modest leads shown in recent polls.
Verbatim Quotes
- “As the Democrat Party gets pulled further to the left, extreme candidates like James Talarico are becoming the norm,” — Majority Leader John Thune
- “The Republican Party is united to elect Ken Paxton and keep Texas red in November. Senate Leadership Fund’s investment through Texas PAC affirms our commitment to maintaining the Republican majority and defeating Far-Left liberals like James Talarico.” — Alex Latcham, leadership fund executive