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Talarico vs. Paxton: Texas Senate Race Heats Up

By Drooid · · How we work

Core Contest Overview

  • Candidates: Democrat James Talarico, Texas state Rep.; Republican Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General.
Newsweek
  • Race: U.S. Senate seat that Democrats have not won in Texas since 1988.
Newsweek
  • Timeline: Talarico entered the race on September 8 2025; Paxton secured the GOP nomination after a May 26 runoff; the general election is scheduled for November 3.
Newsweek
  • Key Issue: Narrow polling margins combined with stark fundraising contrasts and a $131 million independent-expenditure push by a Republican super PAC.
Newsweek

Fundraising Landscape

  • Talarico’s campaign reported $68.6 million raised, $47 million spent, and $21.5 million on hand through June 30.
Newsweek
  • Paxton’s two committees reported $9.2 million raised, $7.5 million spent, and $1.76 million cash on hand.
Newsweek
  • In ZIP codes that voted for Donald Trump in 2024, Talarico out-raised Paxton $1.3 million to $422,000 (Houston Chronicle analysis, Newsweek). Notable gaps: The Woodlands ($238,622 vs. $39,281), Memorial Villages ($255,116 vs. $60,643); Paxton’s best area, Highland Park, gave him $211,701.
Newsweek
  • Texas PAC, a Republican super PAC affiliated with the Senate Leadership Fund, spent $131 million in 17 days—about $7.7 million per day—on TV, streaming and digital ads. The money is independent of Paxton’s campaign.
Newsweek

Polling Snapshot

  • Fox News poll (late September) showed Talarico at 51 % and Paxton at 49 % (margin ±3 pts).
Newsweek
  • Pulse Decision Science poll (Sept 24-27) gave Paxton 48 % and Talarico 45 % (4 % undecided).
Newsweek
  • Stratus Intelligence (Sept 22-24) reported a 48-48 tie.
Newsweek
  • RealClearPolitics average (Sept 8-26) listed Talarico 47.6 % and Paxton 44.7 %.
Newsweek

Official Statements & Responses

  • Paxton told a Washington fundraiser that the September 9-10 Republican convention staged by Donald Trump “dropped our numbers” (recording obtained by The New York Times, reported by Newsweek).
Newsweek
  • Paxton adviser Nick Maddux called the recording “manipulated nonsense” and cited internal polling that placed Paxton three points ahead.
Newsweek
  • Trump said he had not heard Paxton’s comments but acknowledged the convention “could have hurt” his campaign, while still calling the event “amazing”.
Newsweek

Conflicting Reports & Gaps

  • Polls differ on who leads; margins often fall within each survey’s error range, preventing a clear picture of voter intent.
Newsweek
  • The $131 million super-PAC figure reflects independent expenditures and may include future-airtime commitments, creating uncertainty about actual spendable funds.
Newsweek

Why It Matters

  • A Democratic victory would break a 38-year Senate drought for the party in Texas and could shift the Senate’s partisan balance.
Newsweek
  • The unprecedented super-PAC outlay underscores the national stakes Republicans attach to retaining the seat and keeping the Senate majority.
Newsweek

Verbatim Quotes

  • “Ironically, Paxton may owe his political life to Abbott, who is doing most of the get-out-the-vote work for the Republicans,” — Daron Shaw
The Hill

What’s Next

  • Texans will vote on November 3. Both campaigns and outside groups are expected to intensify advertising through the final weeks.
Newsweek