Full Breakdown
Democrats Gain Poll Leads in Traditionally Republican Senate Races
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Core Event: Democratic Leads in Five Red-State Senate Contests
Recent national polling shows Democratic candidates holding leads or ties in five Senate races that have historically voted Republican: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas. In Texas, state Rep. James Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by six points (51%-45%) in a New York Times/Siena poll and by two points (51%-49%) in a Fox News poll. In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan by seven points. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads appointed Sen. Jon Husted by three points. In Iowa, Rep. Josh Turek holds a one-point edge over Rep. Ashley Hinson, while Kansas shows an even tie between Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall. Democrats must flip at least four of the 53 Republican-held seats to gain a Senate majority (47 Democrats + 2 independents).
Background & Context
The 2026 midterms decide control of both chambers. With President Donald Trump’s approval at historically low levels and growing voter disapproval of his handling of the economy and the Iran war, Democrats see an opening to overturn the Republican-held Senate. The Senate currently stands at 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including independents Angus Young and Bernie Sanders). To assume control, Democrats must retain all three of their current battleground seats while winning four Republican seats.
Data & Statistics
- Texas: Talarico 51% vs. Paxton 45% (NYT/Siena); 51% vs. 49% (Fox News).
- Alaska: Peltola 7-point lead over Sullivan.
- Ohio: Brown 3-point lead over Husted.
- Iowa: Turek 1-point lead over Hinson.
- Kansas: Hamilton tied with Marshall.
- National sentiment: AP-NORC poll finds 57% disapprove of Trump; 38% say Democrats would handle the cost of living better.
- Spending: Republicans outspend Democrats by roughly 40% nationwide, with a $262.4 million vs. $76.9 million gap in Texas.
Official Statements & Responses
Sen. Mark Kelly (Arizona) argues that “we’ve made a much better case than them, and that’s why it looks like we’re going to win a bunch of House seats and probably win back the Senate,” linking Democratic messaging to the observed polling trends.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on the size of the Texas lead: the NYT/Siena poll shows a six-point advantage, while the Fox News poll records a two-point margin within a three-point error band. Iowa’s race is reported as a one-point Democratic lead in the NYT/Siena poll, yet a Fox News poll lists it as essentially tied. No polling data are available for several other Republican-held Senate seats, leaving the full national picture incomplete.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Not only is there a swing away from the Republican Party compared to 2024, but the swing actually seems to be somewhat bigger in red America than in blue America, and that's putting these states that Trump won easily very much into play,” — David Hopkins, political science professor, Boston College
- “At some point, you do get conditioned by all that’s happened in the past,” — James Henson, director, Texas Politics Project
- “Ironically, Paxton may owe his political life to Abbott, who is doing most of the get-out-the-vote work for the Republicans,” — Daron Shaw, pollster