Australia’s Aukus Submarine Deal Faces Growing Scrutiny

Under the 2021 Aukus partnership, Australia will acquire three second-hand Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines from the United States starting in 2032, followed by up to five larger “Aukus-class” boats designed in the United Kingdom. Australia’s 2026 National Defence Strategy emphasizes a “strategy of denial” focused on the north-east Indian Ocean, maritime Southeast Asia, and the Pacific. Critics argue that the deep-water, long-range capabilities of nuclear submarines do not match the shallow (< 200 m) waters of the Indonesian archipelago and South China Sea that flank Australia’s northern approaches.

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• Planned fleet: 3 Virginia-class submarines (? 8,000 t displacement) plus up to 5 future Aukus-class boats, for a total of eight submarines by the late 2040s.

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• Operational availability: The “rule of threes” suggests only one-third of a three-submarine set is likely to be on active patrol at any time.

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• Cost projection: The Aukus program is forecast to cost up to $368 billion by the 2050s, equivalent to $33 million per day over a 30-year horizon.

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• Alternative option: Former senator Rex Patrick notes that for the same price Australia could purchase roughly 20 conventional air-independent propulsion (AIP) submarines, potentially fielding seven simultaneously.

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Defence Minister Richard Marles defended the procurement, saying that for a “three-ocean nation” allocating more than 40 % of the defence budget to maritime capabilities is “a strategic necessity.” Former special envoy Luke Gosling argued that nuclear submarines would give the Australian Defence Force a “regionally superior capability” to deter war. Labor Senator Raff Ciccone echoed this view, claiming nuclear-powered platforms are the only vessels that can provide the speed, endurance, and stealth required to protect Australia’s maritime supply chains.

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Former South Australian senator Rex Patrick, an ex-submariner and long-time Aukus critic, highlighted the trade-off between capability and quantity, noting that the cost of a single nuclear boat could fund four conventional submarines, thereby increasing operational coverage.

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If the government proceeds with the nuclear fleet, a substantial portion of its defence budget will be tied to a limited number of high-cost platforms that may be ill-suited to the nation’s primary maritime threat environment. Opting for a larger conventional AIP fleet could enhance coverage of the shallow northern approaches and provide greater redundancy, but would forgo the long-range strike and endurance attributes of nuclear submarines. The debate therefore centers on whether Australia’s security strategy should prioritize power projection alongside deterrence, or focus on defending its immediate maritime approaches.

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• “I can’t see how such a small number of vessels will be able to keep open all of Australia’s trade routes all of the time,” — Hormuz Andrew Gaczol

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• “As a counterpoint, I note that the US Navy has over 60 nuclear submarines and are currently unable to force open the strait of Hormuz.” — Hormuz Andrew Gaczol

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• “For a three-ocean nation, this is a strategic necessity,” — Richard Marles

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