Full Breakdown
Shifts in Oil and LNG Transit Through the Strait of Hormuz
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Changing Patterns of Crude Export
Between September 1 and later in September, commodity-analytics firm Kpler recorded 16.5 million barrels per day of crude leaving the Persian Gulf, matching the pre-war average when Iran is excluded. About 60 percent (? 9.9 million bpd) crossed the Strait of Hormuz; the remaining 40 percent bypassed the waterway via pipelines and other routes through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In August, more than 70 percent of the crude that did cross the strait changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman, indicating a shift from normal commercial shipping.
LNG Flows Reach Highest Level Since the Conflict Began
Data from S&P Global Energy show 19 LNG cargoes (13 from Qatar, 6 from the United Arab Emirates) transited the strait in September, while Kpler estimates 21 cargoes for the same month. The strait historically carried roughly a fifth of global crude oil and LNG supplies before the war that began on February 28.
Background & Context
Before the war, 83 percent of regional crude crossed the strait; today, the export system relies on pipelines, Red Sea routes, and offshore ship-to-ship transfers. The United States provides military protection for commercial vessels, and shipping companies have adopted “dark transits” that switch off AIS transponders to avoid detection.
Official Statements & Responses
- Mohammad Ghaedi, lecturer at George Washington University, described the current traffic level as “unacceptable” to Tehran.
- Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, asserted on X that Iran loaded “ZERO crude oil” onto tankers in September.
- The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on October 3 that two oil tankers were hit by unidentified projectiles in separate incidents; no ship names, damage assessments, or casualty figures were provided.
- Iran’s parliament is considering legislation that would place all shipping through the strait under Tehran’s permits.
On-the-Ground Reports
On September 9, medium-sized Iranian oil tankers were observed waiting off the coast of Bandar Abbas. The United States has dispatched a third aircraft-carrier strike group and an amphibious force of 2,000 Marines, with the buildup expected to be complete by November, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- LNG cargo count: Reuters cites S&P’s figure of 19 cargoes, whereas Kpler’s estimate is 21.
- Tankers hit on October 3: Sources provide no vessel identifiers, exact timing, damage details, or attribution of the projectiles.
Verbatim Quotes
- “This is not a return to normal,” — Ellen R. Wald, author and energy markets analyst
Why It Matters
The diversification of export routes reduces Iran’s leverage over the strait, yet the need for U.S. naval escorts and the “war premium” in oil pricing keep the waterway a strategic vulnerability. Diesel pump prices in the European Union reached record levels on October 1, and LNG price spikes in Asia and Europe persist because limited transits constrain supply as winter approaches.
What’s Next
Analysts note that sustaining September-level LNG transits through winter depends on whether Iran escalates militarily and whether U.S. naval convoys can continue despite high escort costs. Iran’s pending shipping-permit law and the ongoing U.S. force buildup suggest the strategic calculus around the Strait of Hormuz will remain a focal point of regional security and global energy markets.