Full Breakdown
Latvia Votes on Oct 3 as Security and Economic Ties with Russia Dominate Campaign
By Drooid · · How we work
Election Overview
On October 3 Latvians will elect a new 100-seat Saeima through proportional representation, the country’s 11th parliamentary election since regaining independence in 1991. Fourteen electoral lists are contesting the vote; polls cited by the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung Security Radar 2025 place the centrist United List ahead with roughly 20 % support, followed by the Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance and Latvia First, which holds about 9 %. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs leads the United List into the contest.
Security and Defense Context
Security concerns dominate the campaign. Repeated drone incursions have prompted NATO to station four German Air Force Eurofighter jets at Latvia’s Lielvarde base, only 60 km from Riga. The latest incident, on September 15, involved a drone believed to have crossed from Belarus and was shot down by a NATO fighter over Lithuania. Latvia is one of the few NATO members that has legislated a defence budget of approximately 5 % of GDP. Analysts note that the perceived Russian threat is shaping voter priorities and party platforms.
Economic Debate Over Russia
Before the 2022 invasion, Russia was a key trading partner. Since then, Latvia has cut imports from Russia and Belarus by more than 90 %, imposing some of the EU’s toughest restrictions on goods from the two countries. The shift has strained businesses with historic Russian links. According to the same FES poll, 60 % of Latvians want to reduce dependence on Russia, while 20 % favour closer economic ties. Parties such as Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance (led by Julija Stepanenko) and Latvia First (led by former businessman Ainars Slesers) advocate a more pragmatic approach, emphasizing growth and continued transit of goods that are not prohibited by EU sanctions. Party member Edmunds Zivtins cautions that full restoration of trade is premature while the war in Ukraine continues.
Official Statements & Responses
Agnese Kupca of the United List warned that “the biggest threat is our neighbors, Russia and Belarus.” Filips Rajevskis highlighted the need to boost investment amid security-driven economic constraints. Edmunds Zivtins reiterated that discussions on fully restoring trade with Russia must wait until the conflict ends.
