Full Breakdown
Latvia’s Oct 3 Parliamentary Election: Security, Russia and the Cost-of-Living Vote
By Drooid · · How we work
Election Overview
On October 3 Latvians will vote to fill the 100-seat Saeima. The campaign has been dominated by two intertwined concerns: the perceived threat from Russia—including recent drone incursions—and a nationwide cost-of-living squeeze. The centrist United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, heads the polls, while populist parties that question aid to Ukraine have gained noticeable support.
Background & Context
Latvia, a NATO and EU member bordering Russia and Belarus, has warned of hybrid attacks. The latest drone incident occurred on September 15 in neighboring Lithuania, where a NATO fighter shot down a craft believed to have entered from Belarus. Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Latvia has cut imports from Russia and Belarus by more than 90 % and committed to spending 5 % of GDP on defence, one of the alliance’s highest levels. German Eurofighter jets are stationed at Lielvarde air base to reinforce Baltic air defenses ahead of the vote.
Key Parties & Figures
- Andris Kulbergs – Prime Minister, United List (centrist, pro-Ukraine).
- Julija Stepanenko – Leader of Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance (populist, critical of Ukraine aid).
- Ainars Slesers – Founder of Latvia First (populist, seeks pragmatic ties with Russia).
- Roberts Kits – Analyst at the Latvian think-tank LaSER.
Official Statements & Responses
Kulbergs has stressed unwavering support for Ukraine and the need to bolster anti-drone capabilities, arguing that maintaining the 5 % defence budget is essential for national security and NATO’s eastern flank. German Eurofighter deployments are presented as a temporary measure to ensure a “peaceful democratic election.”
Analyst Roberts Kits notes a broad consensus among parties to keep military spending near the 5 % target and to continue backing Kyiv, while acknowledging that the cost of living remains decisive for many voters.
Criticism & Opposition
Julija Stepanenko’s party opposes further military aid to Ukraine, framing the conflict as a drain on Latvia’s economy and urging negotiations.
Ainars Slesers positions Latvia First as a champion of growth and investment, emphasizing domestic priorities over foreign commitments.
On-the-Ground Reports
Residents of Daugavpils, where 90 % of the population speak Russian, voice concerns about youth out-migration and job scarcity. “The most important thing is the lack of young people and the lack of good jobs,” says Aigars Soikants, a 30-year-old local.
Valentin Trofimov, a 62-year-old watch-repairer, intends to vote for Slesers’ party, citing low wages and insufficient public services.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls present divergent pictures of United List’s standing: an SKDS poll (Sept 16) shows 14.4 % support, while an LSM exit poll (Oct 1) reports 35.6 %. Media outlets also differ on the projected shares for Sovereign Power and Latvia First, ranging from 9 % to 10 %. No definitive post-election coalition composition is known, and the impact of the Russian-speaking electorate’s shifting preferences remains uncertain.
What’s Next
Following the count, Latvia will enter coalition negotiations. Kulbergs has indicated he will not form a government with Sovereign Power and has ruled out a partnership with Latvia First, though analysts suggest Latvia First could become pivotal if United List’s share proves insufficient for a majority. Preliminary results are expected on the evening of October 3, with official confirmation due the following day. The composition of the next Saeima will shape Latvia’s security posture and economic policy for the next four years.