Australia’s AUKUS Submarine Deal Under Scrutiny: Nuclear Power vs. Conventional Capability

Australia will acquire three second-hand Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines from the United States, with up to five larger “AUKUS-class” boats slated for future construction. The deal, part of the AUKUS partnership, aims to strengthen maritime defence and protect trade routes. Critics say the size, cost and purpose of these nuclear platforms may not match Australia’s geographic and operational needs.

The Guardian

Australia’s 2026 National Defence Strategy stresses a “strategy of denial” across the north-east Indian Ocean, maritime Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Its shallow continental shelf—often under 200 m in the Indonesian archipelago and South China Sea—has traditionally favoured smaller, quieter submarines. The 2023 AUKUS agreement promises a nuclear-powered fleet to give Australia “a regionally superior capability” and deter threats to maritime supply chains.

The Guardian

• Displacement: Virginia-class submarines ? 8,000 tons.

The Guardian

• Fleet size: Three Virginia-class boats (delivery from 2032) plus up to five future AUKUS-class vessels, total eight by the late 2040s.

The Guardian

• Operational availability: Navies follow a “rule of threes” – typically only one of three submarines is mission-ready, implying two to three vessels could be active at any time.

The Guardian

• Cost: AUKUS programme projected up to $368 billion by the 2050s, about $33 million per day over 30 years (conservative estimate).

The Guardian

• Economic reliance on sea lanes: 98 % of traded goods and 90 % of fuel are imported via maritime routes.

The Guardian

• Pete Hegseth, U.S.

The Guardian

• Richard Marles, Defence Minister, told the Shangri-La Dialogue that directing more than 40 % of the defence budget to the maritime domain is “a strategic necessity” for a three-ocean nation.

The Guardian

• Malcolm Turnbull, former Prime Minister, called the nuclear-submarine faith “stark staring bonkers,” arguing AIP submarines suit shallow waters better.

The Guardian

• Luke Gosling, former special envoy, said nuclear submarines will give the ADF “a regionally superior capability” to deter war.

The Guardian

• Raff Ciccone, Labor Senator, asserted only nuclear submarines can provide the speed, endurance and stealth needed for Australia’s supply chains.

The Guardian

• Critics argue unlimited-range nuclear boats are unnecessary for shallow northern waters and that a small fleet cannot reliably keep trade routes open.

The Guardian

• Rex Patrick, former senator and ex-submariner, warned the high cost of a single nuclear submarine could instead fund four conventional boats, increasing coverage and flexibility.

The Guardian

• “I can’t see how such a small number of vessels will be able to keep open all of Australia’s trade routes all of the time,” — Hormuz Andrew Gaczol

The Guardian

• “As a counterpoint, I note that the US Navy has over 60 nuclear submarines and are currently unable to force open the strait of Hormuz.” — Hormuz Andrew Gaczol

The Guardian

• “For a three-ocean nation, this is a strategic necessity,” — Richard Marles

The Guardian

The suitability of nuclear submarines affects Australia’s capacity to patrol extensive maritime approaches, safeguard trade-dependent supply chains and project power in a contested Indo-Pacific. A limited fleet and high operating costs could increase reliance on allied navies, potentially shifting strategic autonomy. Proponents argue nuclear endurance and stealth provide a deterrent edge against state actors seeking to disrupt sea lanes.

The Guardian

The government has not set a timeline for constructing the future AUKUS-class submarines. The programme is expected to run through the 2050s, with cost assessments and procurement decisions reviewed periodically by the defence ministry.

The Guardian